Opinions And Ramblings By Adam Kmiec On All Things Media

While everyone else is falling in love with a product that’s not even released yet, I’m opting to take a more realistic view on the iPad.  I think it’s going to fail.  I don’t see it being 1/10 as successful as the iPhone.  Here’s 5 reasons why it will fail to connect with consumers.

1. Price: Simply put, it’s too expensive.  Considering you can get nearly ALL of the functionality the iPad has to offer in an iPod Touch, which starts at $199.99, I don’t see many folks opting to upgrade.  Also consider the number of people who already have laptops.  You get infinitely more options on a laptop than you do with an iPad.  This essentially makes the iPad a “treat” or “splurge” item.  Considering the sorry state of the economy, can you see the average family of four spending a minimum of $499.99 for a “nice to have” product?  Me neither.  Lastly, consider all the people with Kindle’s or other eBook readers.  Buying an iPad makes no sense for these folks either.
2. The Network: The smartest thing Apple could have done was choosing any other cellular provider over AT&T.  Despite all of the uproar over AT&T’s shoddy network, it makes zero sense that they’d choose AT&T.  Can you imagine downloading a 500mb TV show from the iTunes Store over the AT&T Edge network?  Ouch, it would be painful.  But, ok…what’s done is done.  They chose AT&T.  Fine. The next smartest thing they could have done was use a normal SIM card to access the network.  This would have let people who have iPhones simply swap their SIM card from their iPhone, place it into their iPad, and then connect away.  I think this wasn’t done for only one reason.  By choosing an alternative SIM card design you are forced to pay AT&T even more money to access their horrible network.  Bad move.
3. No Camera: How they missed the boat on this is mind blowing.  The iPad with a built in camera would have been a killer device for people who are frequent travelers (business or personal).  The ability to video chat from such a lightweight and compact device would have made this a must have product for travelers.
4. No Flash: Say what you want about HTML 5, but not having Flash essentially eliminates the ability to watch over 50% of the meaningful video content on the web.  Hulu is no dice.  Network television sites like ABC.com are no dice.  Entertainment sites like Funny or Die, MetaCafe, and Break.com are no dice.  People want things to work as anticipated.  So when they visit Hulu.com and essentially get a giant fail whale, there will be huge disappointment.  That disappointment will manifest itself into negative peer to peer recommendations.  So much for buzz driving sales.
5. Walled Garden: I still can’t install apps like Office.  I still can’t install programs like Photoshop.  The ability to create and edit files is limited to the iWork software bundle.  Sure, that would be great…except no one really uses it.  Like it or not Microsoft Office is still king.  When pundits described the iPad as a large iPhone, they weren’t kidding.

The iPad could have been killer.  Instead, it’s about as exciting and will be as successful as the Newton.

UPDATE 4/3/10

This morning I headed over the Mall of America to visit the Easter Bunny.  But, seeing as I had some extra time on my hands, I decided to swing over and check out the “scene” at the Apple Store.  Well, there wasn’t much of a scene.  The Apple Store clearly was anticipating one.  There were two sets of gated lines; one for pre-orders and one for new purchases.  The gates stretched about 200 feet.  I think they were over-prepared.  When I walked by, there were 4 people in the pre-order line and 6 people in the new purchase line.  It took me all of 15 minutes to go from being the 7th person in line to purchasing the iPad for my daughter as an early birthday present.  That kind of “scene” isn’t exactly reminiscent of the iPhone release scene.  It was more like the scene at a 7-11 at 3 in the morning.  Newton, here we come!

Peter King is easily one of my favorite sports writers. His Monday Morning Quarterback column is simply some of the best writing out there. Perhaps the best part of his column is a section called 10 Things I Think I Think.

He’s been on vacation the past few weeks, leaving Monday Morning Quarterback in the hands of guest writers. They’ve all taken their crack at filling the void, but none have really nailed it.

With that in mind, I got the inspiration earlier this week to write my own 10 Things I Think I Think column. So hear it goes…

1. I think I’m ok with TechCrunch posting all the “secret” and “confidential” documents. TechCrunch is only slightly above the National Enquirer, so it’s not like they have journalistic integrity. Their decision to post didn’t surprise me and the voyeur in me was fascinated to see the inner workings of a company clearly struggling with their own success.  I also think it was nice to see the folks at twitter realize they weren’t gods.  Sometimes you just need to be knocked down a peg or two.
2. I think Google is the ultimate frenemy. You need them to succeed, but you clearly don’t trust them. I think this distrust of Google is exactly why twitter decided to partner with Microsoft to create Bing Tweets even though Google would have given them even more exposure.
3. I think I’m just not all that interested with Posterous.  It could just be that I’m stubborn, but I don’t see the value in the platform over what WordPress, tumblr, etc. already offer.
4. I think the best aspect of the social web is that it’s helped me meet new people in person. Through twitter alone, I’ve made 6 new “real” connections. These are people that I now call upon for advice or just to talk shop. That’s the real power of social media. It’s not the technology and the platforms; it’s the people.
5. I think in the next 3 years, we’re going to see a quantum shift in the cell phone business. Consumers will be able to buy their phone and then be able to use it with any service provider they choose. This will change the face of mobile in the United States and force service providers to rethink their business model.
6. I think expectations are a good thing, but ridiculous expectations are completely silly.
7. I think the term “partnership” is overused and generally misunderstood. True partnership means more than 1 person/team/company/etc. working together for the greater good. It means give and take is expected. It means you look out not only for your own interests, but also the interests of your partners.
8. I think the whole green movement is a fad and that when put to a choice between a green product that costs 40% more than a non-green product, the non-green product will always win with consumers. When I was looking at houses in Minnesota, I explored so called green houses. The concept was cool and the payout was supposed to be fantastic because of how energy efficient they were. Sure, they are…but they also cost nearly 60% more than a non-green house and the payback happens after roughly 15 years of being in the house. Not exactly what I’d call an exciting return on investment.
9. I think as video game systems advance, I’m finding them less exciting. The wii doesn’t do it for me and if Microsoft is serious about the next generation in gaming being a controller free world, I’m done with gaming.
10. I think I’d rather work with passionate people that want to be better than smart people who are devoid of emotion. It’s not even a question.

I enjoy writing. I enjoy sharing my thoughts. The self publishing capabilities that have launched in the last 3 years have made my life infinitely easier and brought me closer to all of you out there. That’s the beauty of an always on, easily connectable, and simple to use internet. I think I’m really thankful for that.

I like Microsoft. I think Windows is a great operating system. The Office suite of products including Outlook, Project, and Visio are the tools I need to do my job on a day to day basis.

People, really smart people, continue to talk about Microsoft’s demise. They point to Microsoft’s decision to hire CP+B as an example of desperation. On some level, I agree. At the same time they’re shoveling dirt onto Microsoft’s grave, they’re placing Apple on a ridiculously high pedestal. On a lot of levels this is quite funny when you consider that Microsoft maintains more than 89% of the market share. But, I digress.

Microsoft’s problem as it relates to Apple has always been the same. Apple not only develops the software/operating system they’re also designing the hardware. They design the look and feel of the MacBook, iPhone, and iMac. They have 100% control over what the visual expression of the brand will be. That’s huge. Think about it. People don’t understand the nuts and bolts of an operating system. They can’t articulate memory leaks or poor coding. The options for hardware also confuse consumers. Does the consumer need 2gb of memory? 4gb? What about the video card? Oh and don’t forget do you need a 80gb or 200gb hard drive. There’s simply too many options.

But, what consumers do understand is the look of the actual hardware. The Macs are sexy. They’re sleek. They stand out. They’re light weight and have features their PC counterparts overlook; like the magnetic power cord. When you touch the Mac it feels good in your hands. When you consider that this concept is part of Apple’s culture it’s easy to see why the do such a great job with design. From the minute the consumer looks at the Mac and then subsequently touches it, an emotional connection is formed between Apple and the consumer. This is what allows them to leverage the Apple Store so well and why the newly announced Microsoft stores will fail.

Microsoft has little to no control over the actual hardware. Toshiba, HP, Dell, etc. all pick and choose different design options. Frankly, their design options are bland and lack a visual appeal. They just aren’t very sexy and because of that, it’s rare the consumer makes an emotional connection with a PC laptop or desktop. Now don’t get my wrong. You’re paying for this style, design, and emotional connection. Microsoft would have you believe you’re paying about $500.00 more.

The problem with this campaign and these ads are that Microsoft isn’t selling Microsoft – they’re selling HP or whatever computer manufacturer they feature. That’s a major disconnect, don’t you think? So long as Microsoft is at the mercy of their hardware partners they will continue to have this problem and all the advertising in the world won’t fix fix it.

They need a product that people want to touch, feel, and pick-up.  They don’t have one.  Not one consumer product (Microsoft Surface isn’t a consumer product) from the Zune to the Smart Phones is desirable.

Microsoft may be the only company where the standard advertising agency recommendation or “you need to evolve from a reason to believe to a reason to care…and establish an emotional connection with your consumer” – is 100% true.

We’ve come to the end of the road.  Starting on the 22nd of December I’ve been providing 1 top 10 list every day.  The lists have been a lot of fun and a lot of work to put together.  Until now, all of the lists focused on 2008.  For example the top 10 commercials in 2008.  As we get ready to close out 2008, I thought it only appropriate to look forward to 2009.  Here are my top 10 pieces of advice to marketers in 2009.

1. Embrace Data: I love watching my creative team looking at Google Analytics.  Data, reporting, metrics, and measurement aren’t one person’s responsibility.  It’s everyone’s, because we’re all accountable for the end result.  Don’t be afraid of the data when your campaign/site/program isn’t performing as well as expected.  That’s the beauty of data; it tells us exactly how we’re doing.  The key though is to make sure you’ve set aside time and dollars to optimize.  It’s never a good thing to know your site is underperforming and not be able to fix it because of limited funding.
2. Remove The Buzzwords: It’s not about baffling with bullshit.  Really, its not.  Clients are getting smarter.  Heck, all marketers are getting smarter.  There’s no need to dumb down the conversation.  When we use buzzwords, do you know what we sound like?  We sound like we don’t know what we’re talking about and that our only knowledge comes from AdAge.
3. Extend Interactive Marketing Beyond The web: The nice thing about 2008 was that we got to see technologies like Microsoft Surface offer a glimpse about what INTERACTIVE can really mean.  Interactive marketing is no longer just about emails, banners, and web sites.  We’ve evolved.  Digital billboards can be interactive.  Television can be interactive.  We need to think beyond the web site and start thinking about all the other ways we can bring interactive to the people.
4. Nail The Fundamentals: The web is old enough that we should never ever miss the fundamentals.  Please buy multiple variations of a URL.  Make sure you have a paid search campaign in place when running TV.  Ensure tracking tags are in place.  The list goes on and on.  It amazes me that marketers continue to overlook the basics.
5. Educate Legal: It’s really easy for legal for shoot things down, appear uncooperative, or seem difficult when they don’t even understand what they’re reviewing.  My personal POV is that legal should never make a decision; they’re role is to advise.  However, many brand managers don’t view things that way.  Legal is a security blanket that often has far too much power.  The best way to leverage that power is to influence it.  The easiest way to influence things is to educate.
6. Leverage All 5 Senses: For too long we’ve focused on just site and sound.  The iPhone brought us touch.  While the ability to actually taste and smell through a flat screen monitor is a few years off it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to delight all 5 senses.  There’s plenty of research to show how visual stimulation can impact taste and smell.  As digital progresses, figuring out how to connect with me through all my senses will become a game changer.  Yes, I used the buzzword game changer.  Do you see how dumb I just sounded?
7. Hire Well, Retain Talent, Compensate Fairly: It’s not easy to find solid talent.  When you do, hold on to that talent.  Don’t let it go.  If you lose good talent to a competitor it’s a double whammy.  Compensation is always tricky…well unless of course you abide by the golden rule: pay people based on their value to the company.  Let’s say person X is making 50K, but the market puts his worth at 70K.  If person X is a great performer and you won’t give him/her market value or close to it, you’ll lose person X and have to pay 70K to an unknown.  Think about it.
8. Don’t Wait For Nike And P&G To Do “It” First: When I was working on Kellogg’s, Similac, Healthy Choice, and just about every other consumer packaged goods brand our recommendations for new, different, and innovative ideas would be met with stone walls.  That is, until P&G or Nike did exactly what we were recommending.  It seemed that once P&G or Nike did something it opened up the door for other brands to do “it.”  You can be innovative.  You can do things first.  Often times losing out on first mover advantage can set you back years or in some cases, you’ll never get any traction.
9. Look Beyond The Usual Suspects For News: AdAge, AdWeek, Wired, and Fast Company are great publications.  But, if those 4 and some of the other publications that everyone is reading are your go-to reads, you have a problem.  This world moves to quickly to wait for a weekly or monthly update.  Real time information is where it’s at.  Places like TechCrunch, Engadget, and iMedia give that and more.  Broaden the horizon…your competitors already are.
10. Get Involved: Start a blog.  Join Twitter.  Engage in a message board.  Create a Facebook account.  Build your own social network on Ning. Many of these things are simple to do.  Once you starting joining in on the fun, you’ll start to see the marketing possibilities.

As I discussed early and often, the new work is bad. I mean like really bad. Some people have argued, you need to give it time because that was only the first chapter. Ok, well here is chapter 2:

You can’t be serious? Microsoft paid for this?