For reference here’s a recap of how I did with my 2015 predictions. Before we get started, a few house rules on how I do my predictions:
- My predictions generally cover the marketing, advertising and technology industry. On occasion, I veer into pop culture.
- I try to avoid softballs. Mashable is so good at it, there’s no sense in serving them up.
- Predictions are made with no insider info. They’re based only on what I think will happen.
- What I think will happen and what j want to happen, are, in fact,2 completely different things.
- At the end of the year, I grade myself on how I did. Each prediction is analyzed and either 1 point (completely right), a .5 point (partially correct) or 0 points (totally missed) are awarded.
With that out of the way, here we go! For 2016, I’m going with a high volume approach. I’m going to list out 15 predictions in total, in order of most likely to happen to least likely.
- VR, be it Oculus Rift, Cardboard or whatever, will fail in a manner only bested by Google glass. The price point will be too high, the platform too closed and the novelty too limited.
- FourSquare will be purchased for less than 60% of it’s high point valuation. It will sell, not to Microsoft or Yahoo!, but to a platform like Yelp!, FitBit or OpenTable. Basically, it will sell to something unexpected.
- Marissa Mayer, will choose to pursue other opportunities and the board will thank her for her efforts and service.
- There will be a major hack of either “connected” cars or the connected home. You will see a major exploit of something like HomeKit, Weave or BMW’s connected service.
- A major sport will adopt digital technology in a way that changed their game and starts to make humans obsolete. For example, we’ll see a chip put in footballs and in the pylons to determine if a touchdown is a touchdown.
- Tesla will start or continue, depending on your point of view, it’s long, slow, death spiral.
- Chip credit cards will bring retail to such a slow crawl for checkout, that NFC forms for payment (eg Apple Pay), will become promoted by retailers, thus doubling, if not tripling, NFC transactions.
- Tied to #7, walled garden payment systems, like Walmart Pay, will fail miserably.
- Social media will influence the election in a way that will bring about changes to how elections are run. For example, it’s well known that when you tell a population X candidate is winning by Y%, voter turnout suffers.
- When Donald Trump wins the election we will see a re-writing of how the role that the media plays, in general. This will be the tipping point for the decline of mainstream / traditional media and the rise of platforms (particularly, social media) as more important than TV and companies like CNN.
- Snapchat will look to go public. It’s IPO will flop.
- Twitter will rebound and regain 25% – 30% of its previous stock, high point of $69.
- Cell phones will reverse trend and get smaller, not bigger.
- Drone delivery will happen. Amazon will be first, followed by Taco Bell.
- Uber will face a period of growth flattening, due to democratic/blue states siding with unions to restrict growth. This will force Uber to seek no avenues for growth, beyond it’s core transportation delivery business.
There ya go. Check back in a year to see how I did!