I’ll never understand the appeal of the Bachelor and the Bachelorette. Tonight everyone at the hotel was abuzz with who Brad Womack was going to choose. I was not one of them.
Opinions And Ramblings By Adam Kmiec On All Things Media
Tag Archive: iPad
Should You Take The iPad On Vacation
I just spent a week in Mexico on vacation. I left the laptop at home, brought the HTC Inctedible (but kept it off) and packed up the iPad. The iPad makes for an interesting vacation companion. It’s thin and lightweight, which means you won’t need a separate bag for it (we’re all trying not to let the airlines screw us with bag fees) nor will it break your back. You don’t need to pull it out for security and that’s a big time blessing.
So we know getting it on vacation is a joy, but what about what happens when you’re on vacation? Well Mexico was sunny, warm and surrounded by water and sand. I mainly used it as my all in one news and entertainment reader. No need to carry several books and magazines when you have the iPad. That’s a huge plus in theory. Yes, you have access to a seemingly unlimited arsenal of content. However, trying to read that content outside, even in the shade, is a horrendously unsatisfying experience. You’ll find yourself trying to find an angle that works, shading the iPad and squinting/straining your eyes to read. On the plus side you can do this for 10 hours without scorching your legs. The iPad’s battery life lives up to the hype and the great job the engineers at apple did with the design ensure the iPad is cool to the touch, even after heavy use. Additionally, the sealed form factor and lack of a keyboard are great at fighting the elements…like the sand that gets blown around, the rain and of course the splashes from the pool.
All in all the iPad is a wise choice for a vacationer. It saves you space, let’s you enjoy content on demand and if you so choose will keep you connected to the “real world.”. Just keep in mind that the visual viewing experience you have indoors is not even close to the experience you’ll have outdoors. It’s a tough and initially frustrating situation to get used to. For me, it took nearly 2 full days to start seeing passed the visual shortcomings. I imagine this will be different for each person.
Is It Simple And Does It Solve?
Is it simple and does it solve are two questions I ask myself when forecasting the success, or lack there of, for a new product. Complex products that are complex to use rarely succeed. And products that don’t solve a consumer need or problem often fail. When a product has both it’s destined for greatness. The iPhone is a shining example of a product that was very simple to use and solved the consumers’ problem. Before the iPhone, even the smartest of smart-phones, were dumb. They were heavy. They were clunky. They were slow. They lacked personalization. The iPhone eschewed us into the future and made us wonder how it was we got by with Palm Treos and Blackberries. And by making the entire face touch screen based, the entire interface was simple, palatable and natural.
A product can find success if it’s difficult, but clearly solving for a problem. For example, think about early VCRs. The certainly solved for the consumer need, but they were insanely complex. People tolerated the complexity because the need was so great. However, you’ll your head trying to find a successful product that which simple to use, didn’t solve for a problem.
It’s in this land of simplicity without solving a problem that the iPad lives. I’ve been using the iPad every day since its launch and though I try to find the problem it’s solving, I’m unable to.
Don’t get me wrong. There are several niche problems the iPad solves. For example the battery life is amazing. You could watch movies on it cross country and back without recharging. That’s impressive and a major step up from the iPhone and MacBook (even the air). It solves the weight problem of laptops, but it also creates a weight problem for iPhone users 
The iPad offers up some great drawing tools that make sketching, concepting and sharing ideas simpler. But, again, these are niche solutions. The iPad doesn’t solve for anything at “scale.”
The sad fact is that the iPad, as “hardware” has the ability to be successful. I genuinely believe that. It’s lightweight, the perfect size, has a gorgeous screen, and the touch screen is extremely responsive. The problem of course is that the iPad is crippled by the Apple/iTunes ecosystem. The draconian approach Apple has taken renders the iPad a big giant iPod Touch, instead of a super powerful, scalable, “magical” and game-changing device.
Apple would tell you that this approach makes the iPad simple. It sure does, but in making it simple they’ve created more problems than they’ve solved. And, that is why the iPad won’t succeed.
UPDATED: I just came across this great article from FastCompany that does a great job of examining how the current “software” or as I called it, ecosystem, is holding back the iPad. Give it a read here.
Is the iPad Another AppleTV?
I was trading tweets the other day with David Griner about the iPad. He thinks it’ll be successful. I don’t. Time will only tell if that’s the case. As we were conversing the subject of AppleTV got brought into the conversation. I purchased an AppleTV in 2008 and like it for what it is. It’s not a game changer. It’s not revolutionary. It is, however, a very cool way to bring photos, videos, and music to your primary screen…the TV. Despite how cool it is to me, even the great Steve Jobs openly admits it’s a failure.
In my 5 Reasons Why The iPad Will Fail post a few days ago, I compared the iPad to the Newton. In raw sales the iPad has already surpassed the Newton. However, I wasn’t thinking of total sales when I was talking about success. I was thinking more about sales relative to expectations and hype. For example Piper Jaffray thought the iPad would sell 700K units on opening day. Guess what? It didn’t. It sold less than half of that. Of course, that alone doesn’t make the iPad successful or a failure.
As I was reading old articles about the AppleTV, I was strick by this great quote from a 2008 CNET Article:
The problem is, once again, that Apple refuses to accept the world doesn’t begin and end with QuickTime and the iTunes Store. Whether or not his proprietaryness Lord Jobs likes to admit it or not, there’s oodles of video online, most of it encoded in DivX, XviD or H.264/x264
This is eerily similar to the situation with the iPad. Except with the iPad, we’re not only limited with video content, we’re limited with photo content, document/business content, and more. The chief problem here of course is that Apple believes your life should be managed through iTunes. And the reality is, we shouldn’t have to, nor do we want to.
But, I digress…let’s get back to the topic at hand. The AppleTv was a failure. That’s not a topic for debate. Jobs specifically said,
Here’s how I look at it. Everybody’s tried to make a great product for the living room. Microsoft’s tried, we’ve tried — everybody’s tried. And everybody’s failed. We failed, so far.
There’s nothing wrong with failing. I truly believe that Apple failing at the AppleTV lead to product and feature innovations in the iPhone and now the iPad. So let’s focus on the iPad for a second. Here’s what we know so far:
- Analysts predications were 600,000 iPads would be sold on day 1
- 300,000 iPads were sold on day 1
- 74% of buyers were mac users
- 66% of buyers were iPhone users
- 39% of buyers opted for the cheapest option, the $499 16GB iPad
The full survey and all the data is as follows:
So what does the data tell us? Well a few things, from my perspective:
- Are we really surprised that the majority of iPad buyers were existing mac and/or iPhone users? They are the baked in audience. They are the Apple fans. That’s not a slight nor is it an insult. It’s simply a fact that Apple fans are more likely to purchase Apple products than non-Apple fans.
- If only 26% of iPad purchasers were non-mac users, that means Apple grew their market by 78,000 people. That’s small. That’s crazy small. Why do I say that? Well, of those 78,000 you’d need to subtract out corporate purchases (my agency purchases at least 3), developer purchases, bleeding edge/technology buffs, schools, etc. If you take those out of the equation, the 78,000 looks pretty damn tiny.
I feel like the data above is a great indicator that the iPad market is small. The pricing information shows us that it’s simply too expensive of a price point for a device that doesn’t solve a specific need.
Piper Jaffray is forecasting 5.6 million iPad purchases by the end of the year. I just don’t see it. What do you think?
The Real iPad Review
I bought my nearly 3 year old daughter an iPad this morning. Yeap, I walked right up to the Apple Store at the Mall of America and waited behind 6 other people to purchase the iPad. She loves it. She absolutely loves the iPad. Since the moment I placed it in her hands she hasn’t put it down.
Is the iPad a killer device? Is it a game changing device? Will you love it? The simple answer is YES…so long as you have the mindset of a 3 year old. Harsh? Yes. But, it’s the truth. Let me break it down.
The iPad is literally a larger version of the iPhone. When I say literally, I literally mean literally. Everything the iPhone can do, the iPad can do. Or rather everything the iPhone can’t do, the iPad can’t do…and it can do even less than the iPhone 3Gs.
Do you like a linear approach for doing things? If so, the iPad is perfect for you. Everything about the iPad interface is linear. Every desired final action is accomplished through a series of taps. Want to read a book? Cool. Tap the home button. Tap the iBook app. Tap the library view. Tap the book you want to read. Hopefully, you’re getting the point. Some will call this brilliant. I call it rudimentary and lacking, especially when you consider that you’ll be doing a lot of tapping since there is STILL no multi-tasking functionality. Yes, just like the iPhone, you can’t switch between apps. If you’re watching a movie and want to tweet a comment about it, you’ll need to exit the movie app, switch to the twitter app, tweet away, close the twitter app, re-launch the movie app, tap to resume the movie…etc. We’re on the 3rd evolution of the iPhone and the 1st evolution of the iPad…and we still have NO multi-tasking capabilities.
The iPad, by design (weight, size, etc.) competes directly against netbooks. You’ll find that that iPad costs significantly more than most netbooks, but lacks basic computing features that have been around for more than 20 years. For example, you will not be able to create folders, move files between folders, rename files, edit files, upload a file, download a file, etc. Sad. Remember when I said it lacks features that even the iPhone 3Gs has? Well, the big one is and integrated camera. The iPad was tailor made for video conferencing, video streaming, video chatting, etc. But, Apple opted to eliminate this feature. Ugh.
The screen is beautiful, bright, vibrant, full of rich colors and a joy to look at it. Unless of course you’ve used it for more than a minute. Just like an iPhone you’ll find yourself wanting/needing to clean the screen every 10 minutes. Except, unlike the iPhone, you won’t be using your shirt or pants to do so Oh, and unlike the iPhone, Apple opted NOT to include a screen cleaner. Just lame.
Sounds coming from the built-in speakers are acceptable. They’re no substitute for your computer speakers, headphones, or home theater. But, they do the job when it’s quiet. However, when my nearly one year old was in the room creating more ambient noise, it was difficult to clearly hear the dialog in the movie Coraline. Keep in mind, this was when the speakers were turned all the way up.
Apple talks about the size of the iPad as a positive feature. I agree and disagree. Is the the iPad sleek? Yes! Is it thin? You bet! Is it contoured nicely? Yeaper! But, it’s still large and not portable by any stretch of the imagination. You won’t be grabbing for your iPad every time you’re headed out. That’s an unrealistic expectation anyway. But, even if you’re a traveler, like me, you’ll think twice. Why? Because you’re already traveling with your iPhone (or in my case a Nexus One) and your laptop. Do you really need both of those and a iPad on the plane? Can you imagine having yet another item to get through the airport security line? Oyve!
As a substitute for a book, I find it lacking. Here’s why. One, you’d never read with it by the pool because the outside light is too blinding and you can’t get the iPad wet. Two, you’d never read with it in the tub because just as with a pool, you don’t want to get it wet. Three, would you really take it into the bathroom to read like the 71% of people who indicated they read in the bathroom? I didn’t think so. All that aside, the most maddening thing is their are simply way too many options for books on the iPad. This is a true example of the Paradox of Choice. Seriously. You have your Kindle books. You have your iBooks. You have 3rd party books like the Cat in The Hat that sit on the screen like apps. You also have content category aggregator apps like the Marvel Comic Book app. Each of these apps requires you to have a unique login and each manages the content purchased in that app separately from the rest of the apps. What does that mean? That means there is no ONE app to see ALL your books. You need to manage book libraries across multiple apps. Add in magazine and newspaper apps and you have chaos.
One of the coolest features of the iPad unfortunately requires a $29.99 adaptor. You can setup the iPad to be a digital picture frame. I love this idea especially when you consider the cost of many high quality digital picture frames. But, requiring an incremental $29.99 investment is just adding insult to injury.
No USB, no camera, no replaceable battery, no ability to create content and heck no cleaning cloth. I could deal with all of these shortcomings and flaws if the price was something like $349.99 (in line with iPod Touch), but not at $499.99 (minimum). At $349.99 it would be a nice affordable stretch and step up from an iPod and complimentary to a laptop. But, at $499.99 I just don’t see how a current iPhone or MabBook user will find value in a device that does less than both of those devices.
This of course begs the question, why did I buy one? Two reasons. One, my job and why I’m good at it, is to be on and ahead of trend. I need to understand what technology can do, can’t do, will do and might do for our clients. Having an iPad in the house will help me do that. Two, I genuinely believe as FastCompany does, that kids today will benefit from tools like the iPad.
Let’s just be honest for a second. What need does the iPad deliver on? What consumer problem does it solve? The answer to both is nothing. It’s essentially a bright shiny Apple object and that’s exactly why you’ll buy it. However, what I think you’ll find is that just like so many other bright shiny objects, you’ll be bored with it fairly quickly. Unless of course you’re a 3 year old; then you’ll love it and never want to put it down.
UPDATED: April 5, 2010
Is my review harsh? Possibly. Is it fair? Absolutely. I thought you might want to check out what some other industry leaders, who aren’t blinded by the bright shiny Apply object syndrome, had to say about the iPad.
Dave Winer
“Today it’s something to play with, not something to use. That’s the kind way to say it. The direct way: It’s a toy.”
Jeff Jarvis
“I tweeted earlier that after having slept with her (Ms. iPad), I woke up with morning-after regrets. She’s sweet and pretty but shallow and vapid.” and “The iPad is retrograde. It tries to turn us back into an audience again. That is why media companies and advertisers are embracing it so fervently, because they think it returns us all to their good old days when we just consumed, we didn’t create, when they controlled our media experience and business models and we came to them.”
BusinessWeek
“People who predicted that the iPad would kill the market for dedicated E-Ink readers are dead wrong. If anything, the iPad is the amazing, magical device that proves the value of E-Ink.
Don’t believe me? Take an iPad to the beach someday and try to spend the afternoon reading. You’ll be lucky if you can see around your own reflection long enough to finish a paragraph of text.”
David Pogue
“There’s no multitasking, either. It’s one app at a time, just like on the iPhone. Plus no U.S.B. jacks and no camera. Bye-bye, Skype video chats. You know Apple is just leaving stuff out for next year’s model.
The bottom line is that you can get a laptop for much less money — with a full keyboard, DVD drive, U.S.B. jacks, camera-card slot, camera, the works. Besides: If you’ve already got a laptop and a smartphone, who’s going to carry around a third machine?”
5 Reasons The iPad Will Fail
While everyone else is falling in love with a product that’s not even released yet, I’m opting to take a more realistic view on the iPad. I think it’s going to fail. I don’t see it being 1/10 as successful as the iPhone. Here’s 5 reasons why it will fail to connect with consumers.
- Price: Simply put, it’s too expensive. Considering you can get nearly ALL of the functionality the iPad has to offer in an iPod Touch, which starts at $199.99, I don’t see many folks opting to upgrade. Also consider the number of people who already have laptops. You get infinitely more options on a laptop than you do with an iPad. This essentially makes the iPad a “treat” or “splurge” item. Considering the sorry state of the economy, can you see the average family of four spending a minimum of $499.99 for a “nice to have” product? Me neither. Lastly, consider all the people with Kindle’s or other eBook readers. Buying an iPad makes no sense for these folks either.
- The Network: The smartest thing Apple could have done was choosing any other cellular provider over AT&T. Despite all of the uproar over AT&T’s shoddy network, it makes zero sense that they’d choose AT&T. Can you imagine downloading a 500mb TV show from the iTunes Store over the AT&T Edge network? Ouch, it would be painful. But, ok…what’s done is done. They chose AT&T. Fine. The next smartest thing they could have done was use a normal SIM card to access the network. This would have let people who have iPhones simply swap their SIM card from their iPhone, place it into their iPad, and then connect away. I think this wasn’t done for only one reason. By choosing an alternative SIM card design you are forced to pay AT&T even more money to access their horrible network. Bad move.
- No Camera: How they missed the boat on this is mind blowing. The iPad with a built in camera would have been a killer device for people who are frequent travelers (business or personal). The ability to video chat from such a lightweight and compact device would have made this a must have product for travelers.
- No Flash: Say what you want about HTML 5, but not having Flash essentially eliminates the ability to watch over 50% of the meaningful video content on the web. Hulu is no dice. Network television sites like ABC.com are no dice. Entertainment sites like Funny or Die, MetaCafe, and Break.com are no dice. People want things to work as anticipated. So when they visit Hulu.com and essentially get a giant fail whale, there will be huge disappointment. That disappointment will manifest itself into negative peer to peer recommendations. So much for buzz driving sales.
- Walled Garden: I still can’t install apps like Office. I still can’t install programs like Photoshop. The ability to create and edit files is limited to the iWork software bundle. Sure, that would be great…except no one really uses it. Like it or not Microsoft Office is still king. When pundits described the iPad as a large iPhone, they weren’t kidding.
The iPad could have been killer. Instead, it’s about as exciting and will be as successful as the Newton.
UPDATE 4/3/10
This morning I headed over the Mall of America to visit the Easter Bunny. But, seeing as I had some extra time on my hands, I decided to swing over and check out the “scene” at the Apple Store. Well, there wasn’t much of a scene. The Apple Store clearly was anticipating one. There were two sets of gated lines; one for pre-orders and one for new purchases. The gates stretched about 200 feet. I think they were over-prepared. When I walked by, there were 4 people in the pre-order line and 6 people in the new purchase line. It took me all of 15 minutes to go from being the 7th person in line to purchasing the iPad for my daughter as an early birthday present. That kind of “scene” isn’t exactly reminiscent of the iPhone release scene. It was more like the scene at a 7-11 at 3 in the morning. Newton, here we come!
The Value Of Time
I love the iMedia Summit. It brings together the best and the brightest in the interactive marketing field to discuss timely and relevant topics impacting the industry at large. Part of the the obligation we have as attendees of the summits is to listen to a few sponsored presentations. Sometimes these are great presentations. Other times, not so much. The goal from the sponsor’s perspective is to ultimately get a formal audience with the people in the room.
Over the years, from talking to the “sellers” it’s clear they have a challenging and frustrating situation on their hands. How do they break through the clutter and actually intrigue a “buyer” to schedule a 60 minute conversation. These sales guys and gals spend an inordinate amount of time just to get a conversation and rarely do they make that connection. Time is money. Yes, it’s an overused statement, but it’s true. If you boil things down to simple dollars and cents, it’s costs an awful lot of money in time to get a meeting scheduled. I asked one seller last night what their average cost per meeting was. He said it was an interesting question, something they don’t normally track, but estimated it to be about $3,000. That number was based on the average salary of the sales staff, the number of hours they work, the number of companies they contact and they number of successful meetings they setup.
That’s just staggering. $3,000? That doesn’t even include the travel costs for an in person meeting. Wow. Well, the folks at joost decided to rethink the model for securing in-person meetings. At the end of their sponsored presentation they held up a Joost branded iPad cover and dropped a bomb on the audience. They let us know that they would HAND DELIVER a brand new iPad to every person in the room in exchange for a 30 minute presentation. We all thought they were joking. But, when we realized they were serious, you should have seen the people scrambling to be the first to hand over a business card.
This is brilliant for so many reasons. For starters, Joost was the talk of the summit. Buyers were applauding Joost, while the sellers were cursing them. The buzz effect alone was probably worth the investment. But, beyond the buzz, they probably reduced their cost per meeting/lead tremendously. Instead of having to chase down the 150 or so buyers in the room over the next 6 months for a meeting, they had the 150 buyers tracking them down…and it only cost them $600.00 per lead/meeting.
All of a sudden the Joost team can spend their time on the right things. They can focus on understanding my business, customizing a program, bringing in the added value…instead of focusing on setting up a meeting.
That’s the value of time and the folks at Joost are brilliant. The only real question is of course, will they actually deliver on their promise of an iPad and will the deliver the goods in the meeting. Time will tell.
About
Head of Social Media at Walgreens. Interactive marketer, innovator, boat rocker, continuous learner, movie lover, risk taker, dad and all around good guy. I'm always up for a spirited conversation. These are my thoughts and ramblings, not those of my employer.Learn More »
