With only 2 weeks left in 2016, I’m at a point where I can fairly assess, how I did with my 2016 predictions. As I do every year, I look at each prediction and score it as an accurate prognostication, a miss or somewhere in the middle. An accurate prediction nets 1 point, there are no points for a miss and a 1/2 point for something in the middle. I try to be a tough grader; accountability is important.
For a recap of my 2015 predictions, click here; you’ll see I scored a 6.5/10. Not bad, but not great. It was certainly not as great as my 2012 predictions which were 90% right or my 2014 predictions, which had an 80% success rate, but certainly better than my 2013 predictions, which was a laughable 60% hit rate.
With all that said and out of the way, let the judging begin! Note, the original prediction is listed first, with the analysis and scoring in bold font, after.
- VR, be it Oculus Rift, Cardboard or whatever, will fail in a manner only bested by Google glass. The price point will be too high, the platform too closed and the novelty too limited. I’m taking this as a win. There’s some clear diagnostics. For example it’s not a holiday must have / best seller. Let’s then add in the fact James Cameron (yes, that James Cameron), thinks VR is laughable. And, then of course, you have actual sales figures that paint a dismal situation.
- FourSquare will be purchased for less than 60% of it’s high point valuation. It will sell, not to Microsoft or Yahoo!, but to a platform like Yelp!, FitBit or OpenTable. Basically, it will sell to something unexpected. Complete miss. I’m shocked. If there was one thing I was sure of, it was this.
- Marissa Mayer, will choose to pursue other opportunities and the board will thank her for her efforts and service. I was close on this. Being practical about it, she’s just about gone. You have activist investors looking to replace the entire board and they announced a sale to Verizon. I can’t imagine her staying on when that deal closes, to work for Tim Armstrong. I’ll take a 1/2 point here. The spirit of what I was forecasting has come true.
- There will be a major hack of either “connected” cars or the connected home. You will see a major exploit of something like HomeKit, Weave or BMW’s connected service. This happened. It was big. But, it wasn’t as much a hack of specific platform or product as much as a hack of the “web” powering them. I’ll take a 1/2 point.
- A major sport will adopt digital technology in a way that changed their game and starts to make humans obsolete. For example, we’ll see a chip put in footballs and in the pylons to determine if a touchdown is a touchdown. There were a lot of small things throughout the year, but it took until last week for this article about Major League Baseball and wearables to give me a full point. Nothing like making it close!
- Tesla will start or continue, depending on your point of view, it’s long, slow, death spiral. I hit this one, but not quite out of the park. The stock is down 30 points from the start of the year. You also have the autopilot issues. Then of course there’s their inability to hit production forecasts. Tesla may not die, but my prediction was good.
- Chip credit cards will bring retail to such a slow crawl for checkout, that NFC forms for payment (eg Apple Pay), will become promoted by retailers, thus doubling, if not tripling, NFC transactions. Close, but not quite a cigar. Chips were a huge problem (leading to a lawsuit), but NFC didn’t take off. 1/2 a point.
- Tied to #7, walled garden payment systems, like Walmart Pay, will fail miserably. Nailed it, not much more to add.
- Social media will influence the election in a way that will bring about changes to how elections are run. For example, it’s well known that when you tell a population X candidate is winning by Y%, voter turnout suffers. Yes, social media influenced things in a major way, but too early to tell if future elections will change. 1/2 a point.
- When Donald Trump wins the election we will see a re-writing of how the role that the media plays, in general. This will be the tipping point for the decline of mainstream / traditional media and the rise of platforms (particularly, social media) as more important than TV and companies like CNN. This was a home run, grand slam, slam dunk and whatever way you want to describe it. Not only did Trump win, but it was his counter approach to mainstream media that sealed the deal.
- Snapchat will look to go public. It’s IPO will flop. Didn’t happen. When it does, I’ll be right.
- Twitter will rebound and regain 25% – 30% of its previous stock, high point of $69. Major miss. Not even close.
- Cell phones will reverse trend and get smaller, not bigger. With the launch of the Apple iPhone SE, I was on trend. There were other manufacturers who produced smaller phones, but we didn’t see a complete trend reversal. 1/2 a point.
- Drone delivery will happen. Amazon will be first, followed by Taco Bell. Amazon did complete a drone delivery. There were not first. Depending on who you ask, you may get a different answer on who was, but I think it’s clear, Dominos was ahead of Taco Bell. All in all, a miss.
- Uber will face a period of growth flattening, due to democratic/blue states siding with unions to restrict growth. This will force Uber to seek new avenues for growth, beyond its core transportation delivery business or via other markets. This happened in a variety of ways. Let’s start with the Didi deal. Then you have the subscription service. You have the exit from Austin, a very blue city. And, we’ll finish with the overall growth slowing. Basically, yeah, I was right.
Wow, that was a lot. So let’s tally it up. The clear misses: 2, 11,12 and 14. The clear wins: 1, 5, 6, 8, 10 and 15. The half right predictions: 3, 4, 7, 9 and 13. All of that makes for a total of 8.5/15 or 56.7%, bringing my year tally to 70% (35/50).
Not the best year, but like I said upfront, I’m a tough grader. Some of those 1/2 points, other might view as a full point. 60% is an F, there’s no way to sugarcoat it. Maybe, next year, I’ll be better.