Opinions And Ramblings By Adam Kmiec On All Things

How Am I Doing With My 2016 Predictions?

With a 1/3 of the year gone, I thought it would be a good time to see how my 2016 predictions are looking. There’s been a lot of activity already. So much so, that I might need to add new predictions into the mix. The full list of predictions is available in the link above. I’m only going to focus on those that are heating up.

3. Marissa Mayer, will choose to pursue other opportunities and the board will thank her for her efforts and service. – Looking good so far, with activist investors looking to replace the entire board, sell Yahoo! and fire Ms. Mayer. The irony of course, if this were to happen, is that, it was activist investor Daniel Loeb who paved the way for Marissa to be hired. She joins a long list of ex-googlers who, while brilliant, couldn’t lead people.

4. There will be a major hack of either “connected” cars or the connected home. You will see a major exploit of something like HomeKit, Weave or BMW’s connected service. – No mass hacking…yet. But, every day, we see how vulnerable cars really are.

12. Twitter will rebound and regain 25% – 30% of its previous stock, high point of $69. – Well, we’re not off to a great start. To get to 30% of the original $69 high, we need twitter, to be above $20 a share. Currently, it’s at $15…and, it doesn’t look good.

13. Cell phones will reverse trend and get smaller, not bigger. – Well, hello, Apple iPhone SE

Not a bad first quarter. Where’s my drone delivery, Snapchat IPO and foursquare purchase?

Don’t Dig A Hole You Can’t Crawl Out Of

Will Rogers

Will Rogers was an incredibly funny guy. But, as most people know, there’s many a truth in jest. In a 1964 edition of The Bankers Magazine, he eloquently stated

Let me tell you about the law of holes: If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

It’s funny, but it’s spot on. A riff on Will’s astute quote would be, if you dig yourself into a hole, it’s on you to dig yourself out.

As children, this is a fairly easy concept and those of us who’ve found ourself in holes, know all too well, that there’s a right way to approach the situation and a wrong way. I think a key element to this is that you have to take accountability and proactively look to pull yourself out of the hole you’ve dug. As a kid, I was constantly digging holes. Frankly, I’m convinced, I kept digging them deeper to see if I could keep rescuing myself.

Knowing how to dig yourself out, as a kid, is fairly easy. Clean your room? Yep, good start. Take out the trash? Doesn’t hurt. Apologize? Damn straight! It’s fairly simple. But, the key…the often overlooked key…you can’t wait for your parents to tell you what to do. Granted, the first few times, they might need to, but eventually, if you’re perpetually digging yourself into a hole, it doesn’t take a lot of effort to recognize there’s a blueprint for getting out.

  1. Recognize the situation – there are often clear signs, you’ve dug yourself into a hole
  2. Accept the accountability. In fact embrace it.
  3. Don’t wait for someone to tell you what to do to get out.
  4. Take stock to think through what needs to be done – avoid a wide overreaction. There’s a temptation to completely do the opposite of what you’ve already done. Often times, that doesn’t fix things; it makes them worst.
  5. Fix it, quickly.

I’m sure there’s some other minor things, but the above is a good start. Ultimately, it’s about accountability and desire. You have to want to make it right. You have to want to think about, how to make it right. And, then, you have to make it right.

2 Years Back At Walgreens And It’s All Still New

Walgreens Logo

Last Monday, February 3rd, I celebrated 2 years back at Walgreens. As I start my 3rd year, I find it remarkable how much things still feel new. And, I say that, in a good way. In the last 2 years, I’ve seen 3 areas of change that have kept me on my toes:


  1. We’re now a global company, following the completion of our merger with Alliance Boots
  2. A new CEO and virtually a brand new C-suite
  3. Sona, our CMO and one of the main reasons I came back, departed for a COO role at Kohl’s
  4. Coming out of 1 – 3, we have a brand new org structure and report through completely different leadership
  5. While not officially completed, we did announce our intent to acquire Rite Aid

Scope And Focus

  1. As I wrote about in January, I learned a lot in 2015. In particular I’ve started to learn how to manage team members that are heads and shoulders above me in their level of subject matter expertise.
  2. When I first joined Walgreens in 2011, it was to lead Social Media. When I rejoined in 2014 it was to lead Social Media and Content. These days, I oversee our efforts in Social Media, Content, Mobile Marketing, SEO, SEM, Affiliate and Digital Strategy. It’s been fun, interesting and at the same time, daunting.
  3. One of the things I’ve consistently been asked to do, throughout my career, is build organizations. Building an organization is very different than growing an organization. The decisions you make, the people you hire and the partners you choose, all change. For example, in a growth model, where the organization is mature, I’m more concerned about disruption than in a startup/build model. You start to favor continuity, but have to always be cautious in letting continuity lead to complacency. If you only focus on 2% growth, eventually you get lapped by something shooting for 20% growth.

Personal Growth

  1. A few months back at Walgreens, a colleague I’ve worked with for years, said to me, “who is this kinder, gentler Adam Kmiec?” – Good question. I think a lot of my change is philosophy and approach comes directly from the shift to growing an org, instead of building one. Maybe I have softened. It’s possible. I think the biggest thing I’ve figured out how to do is to care about and think about the intent behind what people say and the decisions they make. Maybe they were up all night, with a sick kid. Maybe, they’re getting unrealistic pressure from their manager. Maybe, it’s just a bad day. When you start thinking about the intent, your perception and subsequent actions change dramatically.
  2. “What focus means is saying no to something that with every bone in your body think is a phenomenal idea, and you wake up thinking about it, but you end up saying no to it because you’re focusing on something else.” Said differently, saying no, may not win you friends and it’s more difficult to say than, “yes.” However, saying no is what keeps you focused on the things that matter most. That level of discipline is something I’ve never really had to have. It’s work in progress, but that’s a big change.
  3. Toyota helped pioneer and make famous, the power of asking, “why.” In particular, it’s asking, “why” 5 times. A major element of the Walgreens Leadership model is to seek to understand. It’s hard, when presented with a problem, not to jump immediately to a solve. With all the experience we have and the number of situations we’ve encountered, it’s easy to want to start answering the problem, before truly understanding what the root issue really is. Much like a child, I’ve learned to embrace the upside in being the annoying person who asks, “why?”

You have to get accustomed to change. Nothing stays the same. Being back at Walgreens the past 2 years has been invigorating. The pace of change is side-splitting. Learning to keep adapting, while staying focused is equal parts challenging and exciting. I’m glad I came back home, to Walgreens and I’m still thankful for the opportunity, 2 years later. It’s been a heck of a ride and I can’t wait to see where we’re headed next!

10 Things I’m Absolutely Digging Right Now

Mr Jump!

Every so often, I like to give props to companies and products that I’m enjoying, so that others may enjoy them too. No rhyme or reason to the items on the list, just a bunch of things I’m a fan of, right now.

  1. Parker’s Heritage Promise Of Hope: Simply put, the best bourbon I’ve ever had. Good luck finding it though. If you do come across it, buy it by the glass, the bottle or the case.
  2. Stance Socks: Just love them. Smart marketing move by the NBA to partner with them as the official sock provider. Yes, the official sock provider. In particular, I have found these to be the best snowboard/ski sock I’ve ever owned.
  3. Mr Jump: It’s an addictive game. Addictive. I can’t stop. It’s frustrating, unrelenting and rewarding. It’s also FREE. Go get it, now.
  4. Stratego: My 6 year old son, John, got me hooked. He wanted Stratego for Christmas, so his sister picked it up for him. I’d never heard of it, let alone played it. After downloading the app and practicing, I was an instant fan. The board game is equally as much fun.
  5. Nike Cortez Shoes: I’ve always loved the Cortez. Was really excited when Nike brought them back last year. Picked myself up a pair late last year, in Obsidian (aka Navy Blue) and I have to say, I’m a huge fan.
  6. The Grinder: Rob Lowe at his best. The humor ranges from dry to side-splitting. I have no idea how far this show can go, but I’m hooked.
  7. Iwachu Cast Iron Omelette Pan: I love cooking. Never had a legit cast iron pan. I know many people hold Lodge pans up on a pedestal. I have to say, this pan is pretty stellar.
  8. Title Boxing Club: Last year, I joined the Title Boxing Club, in the West Loop. Was always intrigued by boxing and joining a gym, but it took me til I was 36, to finally do it. The boxing club experience is great. I’m sure my location and the instructors there, have a lot to do with making it fantastic. If you’ve been looking for something low impact, moderate to high cardio and total body, join a Title Boxing Club, in your area.
  9. POC Lobes Goggles: I feel like goggles aren’t given enough focus. You buy warm gloves. You buy warm socks. You buy a solid helmet. And then, all too often people under invest in their eye care. Love these goggles. They rock. I really love the fact, if the lenses get damaged or if you ever want to change them, you can….simply, easily and relatively cost efficiently.
  10. Mechrider C6: Yep, I got a hover-board. Yes, I know it doesn’t hover. I’m ok with it. This one doesn’t catch on fire or blow up. I confirmed it with them and the review sites. They use legit Samsung batteries. I’m a fan. My Mechrider rocks.

I’ll be back next quarter with a new list of things I’m absolutely digging on.

When Software Generates Pure Emotion

I don’t think people who develop software realize the pure emotion they can create in their users. Software, when done right, is so much more than 1s and 0s. It’s something that empowers and enables its users to create emotions and feelings. There are feelings of joy, excitement, pride and more, that come at the perfect moment when software becomes transformational.

I’ve been playing with cameras since 1986, when I was 7. Not just any camera, but Nikon cameras. My first camera was a Nikon FE2; the camera of choice for National Geographic photographers. Since then I’ve only shot Nikon. Be it my N80, N90 or F5, in the film days or my D100, D2Hs, D700 and most recently, D810 in the digital days of today, I’m a Nikon guy.

Nikon creates horrible software. There’s no 2-ways about this. Their software is rudimentary, inadequate and an insult to photographers. Harsh words, but true words. The one saving grace was Nikon NX2. It was a nearly flawless piece of software for processing Nikon’s proprietary RAW (the equivalent of a film negative) digital file format. But, for reasons I can’t fathom, all cameras post D700 were no longer supported. The software was discontinued. In its place NX-D was launched. NX-D is not software. It’s barely better than Microsoft Paint from Windows 3.11.

This put me in a bit of a quagmire. Here I was with this great new Nikon D810 and my images were being compromised by bad software. In doing some research, I stumbled upon DxO Optics Pro. I should say, I stumbled upon DxO and their full suite of software products. Just before the new year I purchased their full suite of photo editing software products. This included DxO Optics Pro, DxO Filmpack and DxO Viewpoint.

Candidly, I was stunned, with how damn good it was. I was so stunned, this is what I sent directly to DxO:

I didn’t see an option to contact you about something good! I’ve been photographing with Nikon since my first camera; a Nikon FE2, in 1986. When Nikon abandoned their users by no longer supporting cameras in NX2, I was a bit lost. I purchased the full software suite, just before the New Year and I’m blown away. Frankly, I wish I had been a DXO user, years ago. You’ve got, not just a happy customer, but a big time fan and a life-long supporter and purchaser. Thank you for making such a great suite of software. As an example, of what you’ve enabled me to create, I attached the latest capture. You guys rock. Please pass this on to your product team, marketing team and whomever should know that the software your company creates, changes and improves lives. Great images create emotions. Those emotions are priceless. Thank you.

The photo I was referencing is this one of my daughter, during a moment in between games at her 1st basketball tournament:

Happiness and #Zeiss

A photo posted by Adam Kmiec (@adamkmiec) on

I can’t say enough about DxO. They make software that makes it fun to be a photographer. They make software that makes it easy to create emotions. I’m sold. If you were a person who was on the fence or in my situation, I can’t recommend DxO enough.

Relationships Are Long Term. How 1 Vendor Failed To Grasp This Concept.

lake louise scope HDR

I get a lot of cold calls/emails. On a given week, between LinkedIn, my voice mail, my personal email account and my work email account, I receive roughly 60 pitches. I generally try to respond to every single one. Part of this is simply being respectful and part of this is self-preservation. If you don’t respond, often, the vendor will reach out to a bunch of other people at the company, who will then end up forwarding me the cold pitch email. By responding, I eliminate that email waste.

I completely understand the cold pitch process. People in sales, have to sell. They have quotas. They’re compensated on closing deals. I get it. What I generally ask for is the same respect I offer. If I tell you we aren’t interested, the timing isn’t right or we’re already working with you (it happens more often than you’d think); my expectation is that they respect that feedback. On the whole, I’d say 80% of cold pitches aren’t a fit, 15% are better suited for someone else on my team to evaluate and 5% are things I’m interested in pursuing a follow up conversation about.

Whether you’re part of the 5% or the 95%, you should always remember how small the world is and that relationships are a long term investment. When I say, the world is small, what I mean is, you may end up leaving and calling on me from another company…I may end up at another company and call you, because of how well we’ve worked together in the past…and, whether it’s a good or bad experience, we all have a small network that we rely on for feedback about companies and clients.

In business and in life, never trade the short term gain for the long term potential…well, when it comes to relationships (I don’t mean, if you’re Groupon, you should turn down $3B+ from Google).

Earlier in my career, I was leading digital marketing for a company. In building out our digital organization, we had to hire good people and find good partners. The company I was at, was a classic multi-brand organization. In essence, they were a holding company, with many consumer facing brands. Being a go-to vendor in a multi-brand organization, generally equals big upside. If you knock it out of the park for one brand, it’s likely you’ll get a call about doing work with another brand in the portfolio.

We were looking to add an external partner to help us with something. I say something, because saying what it is, may ultimately identify the company and I’m not looking to shame an individual or an organization. We had things down to 2 potential partners. Partner A and Partner B, had similar offerings, but Partner B was roughly 3x the cost. At 3x the cost, you have to deliver at least 3x the value. Given the wide range, we opted to bring them both on. Partner A, worked with Brand A and Partner B worked with Brand B. This would give us the ability to test both partners, their models, their processes and their approach to working with a large matrixed organization.

The final product from Partner B wasn’t fantastic in my eyes or the eyes of Brand B. This wasn’t 100% their fault. We certainly had to share the accountability for the end product. That said, Brand B wasn’t thrilled and while agreeing there was mutual responsibility, felt like they just paid 3x for something they couldn’t even use…a fair critique. To try and resolve the situation, I asked Partner B to offer some type of make good for Brand B. Just so we have some context, for the value of a make good, we’re talking roughly $90,000. Not a small amount, but not $9,000,000 either. I think, and granted, it’s been a long time, I also opted to split the difference with them. We’d fund $45,000 if they would too. They were firm on their stance, that we received what we paid for, and a make good was out of the question. Trying to offer a broader context, I explained, while I understood their position, it was essentially ending any possibility we could work together again, while I was at this company. Brand B, would tell all the other brands about the negative experience and then their reputation would be tarnished. Firmly, they explained that was a risk they were willing to take.

At that point, I would have been ok with things. It’s a business decision they were making. It wasn’t personal, to paraphrase, The Godfather. However, they then did 2 things that soured me on them long term

  1. They shirked any responsibility and accountability. Instead they put the blame on Brand B for among other things, not having an interesting enough product.
  2. They then chose to disparage Partner A. For context, we were clear that this was a bake-off between the 2 companies. Each company knew the stakes and who their competition was.

Both steps, showed a lack of integrity. And integrity, is something I value a lot in my partners. I want to know you’ve taken the time to understand my organization, the dynamics and my situation. I want to know, you’re thinking about more than 1 project or 1 contract. I want to know you’re invested in our shared success. It was clear Partner B had no interest in any of those things.

Fast forward a few years later and I received a cold email from their company. While I don’t normally save emails (I have a zero inbox policy), I did save these. I answered the email, politely declined and explained why I had no interest. What followed, was a validation of everything I experienced with them, in the past. The following is the actual email exchange. All I’ve done is eliminate personally identifiable information.

Cold Email

Hi Adam,

I hope this note finds you well. My name is XXXXXX and I am an Account Director with XXXXXX. I recently viewed your interview from the XXXXXX which outlined your thoughts on how to XXXXXX. It was a very compelling point of view and similar to XXXXXX approach of bringing the world’s XXXXXX.

I recently joined XXXXXX and was informed by the team here about some past conversations around working together. It would be great to schedule time with you to pick these up again and learn more about your thoughts on how you are evaluating the content ROI for XXXXXX to see if XXXXXX can help. Some recent news on our end is that we were recently named to the XXXXXX. Links to press on each are provided below:


Are you available to meet the week of XXXXXX?


My Response

I’d love to work with you guys, but honestly, I was burned really bad when I was XXXXXX. At the time, I told your leadership team, it was a short sighted decision they were making. They disagreed. Net-net, there’s no way I’d ever work with XXXXXX again. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news

At that point, it is what it is. But, instead, the same contact I worked with the first time, jumped into the conversation thread.

Appreciate the quick response to the team. I thought your title was futurist; I read this and it feels like we’re looking backwards vs focusing on the future:) If you ever got past the hangups around a XXXXXX from XXXXXX years ago; I think you’d learn alot about how us, the space and offering has evolved. You should talk to XXXXXX about us (great guy) ; we’re now an official XXXXXX partner (only XXXXXX in the mix), signed by XXXXXX and developing XXXXXX; have produced over XXXXXX and working repeatedly with the vast majority of the Fortune 100. That being said; if this is a case of He’s Just Not That Into You, you won’t hear from anyone in our company again; I believe in persistence but life is short and we’re all busy right?

Let me know.

PS You never thanked me for connecting you to XXXXXX by the way.

It took only 2 sentences to insult me. Then, we go to the quick sell. Then we go into a I should owe you, for introducing me to someone. So I responded.

Given that logic, you should have looked long term as realized the upside. As is, I’d never work with you guys and when asked about XXXXXX, I relay my experience and current preference to all who ask. I think he expression is have a great experience, your customer tells 10 people, but have a bad one and they’ll tell 100. Looking back on it, was it with $50k?

To which I got this…

Disagree; to cater to the whims of a confused organization and do things for free is not a good long term strategy. Guessing that is one of many reasons you left XXXXXX. Fortunate for us your former preference has gone out of business and your opinion hasn’t prevented us from working with great companies and great people everywhere.

I could give you a host of quotes and sayings around moving on , avoiding perseveration and overall empathy but sounds like it would be wasted words and effort.

I’ll leave it at this; you’ve always seemed like a smart guy; but I would reconsider and think about the way you treat people and view things like this with others. I can assure you helping vs judging and being open minded will serve you better than any type of vindictive behavior in your life and career.

God speed and best of luck.

This time, it took only 1 sentence to provide an insult. Granted, not an insult of me, but the company. Then, another sell. Then another insult (close minded and vindictive?). So I tried to clear that up for him.

“Treat people and view things” – something we can agree on. Offering a fair and honest perspective on an experience isn’t vindictive, it’s being a good colleague.

Honestly, this email exchange make same feel even better about my decision. Similar to XXXXXX years ago, your approach is to deflect and take on zero accountability.

If you’re doing well, great and congrats for you, but I wouldn’t do business with you at XXXXXX or at any company. I simply have no confidence that you’d have our best interest in mind, nor a long term relationship point of view. Good luck in the future.

This basically brought our email exchange to an end…basically, but not before this guy, couldn’t help himself.

And we’ll leave it at this…”Ditto”

I thought a lot about if I should write this post…and, if I did write the post, how much info to share. There aren’t many emails I save, but this set of exchanges stands out to me.  I opted for what I hope is a fine balance between taking the high road (after all, I didn’t need to write anything) and offering a view into what it’s like to get called on by vendors. My hope is that this post offers a perspective on why I fundamentally believe that focusing on the long-term relationship, is always the way to go. Ultimately, I want to hire people and work with companies that are committed to understanding our business, recognizing the current challenges, doing great work, being objective and taking a long term view on relationships.

Don’t ask which company this is about. I won’t tell you. The point of this post wasn’t to air the dirty laundry of 1 company. The point was to remind you to look at the bigger picture. If you made it all the way to the end, thanks. I welcome your thoughts and feedback.

I Learned A Lot In 2015

Winston Churchill

In so many ways, 2015 was a transformative year for me. There was no denying that “change is the only constant” was alive, well and all so very true. Each year, following the sentimentality that comes from the New Year, I take some time to think back on the past year and outline what I’ve learned. Knowledge is a lifelong quest. To me, that’s always been the beauty of it. 2015, the year I turned 36, was a big one.

  1. For the first time in my career, I found myself leading a team of subject matter experts that were much more the expert than I. Earlier in the year, one of my favorite colleagues and best work friends, left Walgreens to pursue an amazing opportunity. His team was transitioned to me. What an honor. I mean that. What a team he built. Smart, hard working, efficient and definitely subject matter experts. Every year, they could forget more than I could ever learn, about their disciplines. A first for me. A humbling experience. So what did I learn? To start with, how much fun it is to be truly not be the smartest person in the room. Every would be, self-help book, always says, surround yourself with smart people, so that you’re not the smartest person in the room. After living it for the past ~6 months, it’s exhilarating. You listen more. You speak less. When you speak, you ask questions. When you ask those question, there’s a split-second where you wonder, if what you’re asking, is a dumb question (usually, it’s not). I always knew my friend’s team was smart, but had no idea, just how sharp they were, til I spent meaningful time with them.
  2. In leading this new team, it was somewhat comforting to know there were still many things I could bring to the table to help them become better. That’s always the question I have for myself; how can I help my team-members become better. For example, in quickly recognizing that I wouldn’t be able to teach them new tricks/techniques to improve their daily craft, I could play the role of connector and instead bring to the table other subject matter experts, from different companies, that they could exchange ideas with. If I wasn’t going to be the expert, the least I could do is introduce them to other experts.
  3. Time management became a challenge as our new team approached ~40 members. I had to learn how to prioritize better than I’ve ever done before. I also had to re-think how to allocate time to spend with my team. It would be impossible to spend an hour with each person, every week, but were there are decisions I could make to ensure the each person on the team felt connected. This is work in progress. When you have a large team, with staff in different states, countries and continents, who are working on initiatives big and small, it’s a constant juggling act to stay connected.
  4. Early on in my career, I was taught to make sure you understand how dollars flow, how decisions are made and who influences perception of risk. More simply put, make friends with finance, legal and business operations. In a year where we formally finished acquiring a company, changed many of the players in the C-level seats, lost our CMO and announced the acquisition of another company, that advice helped ease the pain of change. Understanding how to navigate a large complex organization, is a skill that can often supersede your subject matter expertise’s value.
  5. We’re still trapped by the usage of old methods to evaluate new opportunities. Learning how to frame up the future in a way that fits into the containers of the past, is a challenge. Organizations, by design, are not wired or motivated to make changes that can’t be substantiated by the models, tools and methodologies that are broadly adopted and historically accepted. For example, a colleague of mine, laments that his paid search budget, while showing a ~7X return in pure .Com performance ($1 a click leading to $7 baskets) would seem like a great thing, the overall spend for paid search in his organization, is not big enough to be measured by their Marketing Mix Analysis (aka MMX) partner. Thus, his spend has been flat every year, for the past 3 years. Old methods for evaluating new media are hindering growth.
  6. On the personal side, my continued investment in snowboarding has been rewarding. Ever since I turned 30, I try learning something new, every year. Last year, was snowboarding. I took lessons. Purchased gear. Visited Jackson Hole and Park City. What a joy! This year, I’m picking up boxing and target shooting.
  7. I finally understood the nervousness, passion and craziness that comes from watching your kids play sports. My daughter, Cora, plays league basketball and this year is playing on the traveling team. What a rollercoaster of emotions. Her league team went to the finals, where they lost. As a parent, theres such a balance to be had, in coaching your kids, but not pushing them too hard…in cheering, but not embarrassing them…in wanting to curse out the ref, but not issuing restraint. I think I almost had a heart attack in every game.
  8. Last year and rolling into the New Year, I realized, I’m going to have to learn how accept that at 8 and 6, these kids are becoming completely independent. Case in point, John decided he wanted to come to Chicago to celebrate New Years and hang out with dad. But, Cora, while appreciating the offer, declined, because she had “plans.” You’re 8! You have plans! But, that’s the new reality. We’re rapidly approaching the inflection point where dad is no longer cool and my kids would rather hang out with their friends!
  9. The hunt can sometimes be more enjoyable than the treasure. In 2015, I hunted down the 5 bourbons/whiskeys I’ve always wanted to own, but could never find. In order of price/rarity: A.H. Hirsch 16, Michter’s 20, Van Winkle Family Reserve Rye, Parker’s Heritage: Promise Of Hope, Black Maple Hill Small Batch. The Hirsch and Michter’s, while universally celebrated were just good IMHO. Black Maple Hill’s hype never delivered for me. But, Promise of Hope…WOW! So good, I tracked down 5 additional bottles and grossly overpaid relative to MSRP. But, it was so worth it! That said, on the whole, the hunt was far more fun than the actual prize. I wonder if this is how Tinder users feel?
  10. Things are awesome. They really are. I have a drone (don’t fly it in the house, trust me), a hover-board (haven’t fallen, but once!), shoes, etc. But, it’s a handful of experiences, most of which were fairly inexpensive, that are far more memorable. In 2016, I’ll be investing more in experiences and less in things.

Like I said, 2015 was a big year. Lots learned. Lots to build on!

What’s Going To Happen In 2016

Future of Transportation

For reference here’s a recap of how I did with my 2015 predictions. Before we get started, a few house rules on how I do my predictions:

  1. My predictions generally cover the marketing, advertising and technology industry. On occasion, I veer into pop culture.
  2. I try to avoid softballs. Mashable is so good at it, there’s no sense in serving them up.
  3. Predictions are made with no insider info. They’re based only on what I think will happen.
  4. What I think will happen and what j want to happen, are, in fact,2 completely different things.
  5. At the end of the year, I grade myself on how I did. Each prediction is analyzed and either 1 point (completely right), a .5 point (partially correct) or 0 points (totally missed) are awarded.

With that out of the way, here we go! For 2016, I’m going with a high volume approach. I’m going to list out 15 predictions in total, in order of most likely to happen to least likely.

  1. VR, be it Oculus Rift, Cardboard or whatever, will fail in a manner only bested by Google glass. The price point will be too high, the platform too closed and the novelty too limited.
  2. FourSquare will be purchased for less than 60% of it’s high point valuation. It will sell, not to Microsoft or Yahoo!, but to a platform like Yelp!, FitBit or OpenTable. Basically, it will sell to something unexpected.
  3. Marissa Mayer, will choose to pursue other opportunities and the board will thank her for her efforts and service.
  4. There will be a major hack of either “connected” cars or the connected home. You will see a major exploit of something like HomeKit, Weave or BMW’s connected service.
  5. A major sport will adopt digital technology in a way that changed their game and starts to make humans obsolete. For example, we’ll see a chip put in footballs and in the pylons to determine if a touchdown is a touchdown.
  6. Tesla will start or continue, depending on your point of view, it’s long, slow, death spiral.
  7. Chip credit cards will bring retail to such a slow crawl for checkout, that NFC forms for payment (eg Apple Pay), will become promoted by retailers, thus doubling, if not tripling, NFC transactions.
  8. Tied to #7, walled garden payment systems, like Walmart Pay, will fail miserably.
  9. Social media will influence the election in a way that will bring about changes to how elections are run. For example, it’s well known that when you tell a population X candidate is winning by Y%, voter turnout suffers.
  10. When Donald Trump wins the election we will see a re-writing of how the role that the media plays, in general. This will be the tipping point for the decline of mainstream / traditional media and the rise of platforms (particularly, social media) as more important than TV and companies like CNN.
  11. Snapchat will look to go public. It’s IPO will flop.
  12. Twitter will rebound and regain 25% – 30% of its previous stock, high point of $69.
  13. Cell phones will reverse trend and get smaller, not bigger.
  14. Drone delivery will happen. Amazon will be first, followed by Taco Bell.
  15. Uber will face a period of growth flattening, due to democratic/blue states siding with unions to restrict growth. This will force Uber to seek new avenues for growth, beyond its core transportation delivery business or via other markets.

There ya go. Check back in a year to see how I did!

How I Did With My 2015 Predictions

It’s always easy to make a bold prediction about what will happen. It’s much harder to hold yourself accountable for what you predicted would happen. Every year, I evaluate, with brutal honesty, how I did with forecasting what would take place in the current year.

For reference, her was my post last December that outlined everything I thought would happen in 2015. Additionally, please keep in mind, my 2014 predictions had an 80% success rate , my 2013 predictions saw a 60% thumbs up rate and my 2012 predictions were 90% right. While my 3-year average of being 85% on the mark, is great, it’s by no means an indicator of how this pas year’s predictions will go. If you will, sometimes, it’s better to be lucky, than good.

Without further adieu, here are my 2015 predictions, with analysis and scoring in bold font.

  1. Apple Will Launch A Music Streaming Service, It Will Rival Spotify, Crush Small Players, But It Will Not Be A Universal Success: See #2, but I don’t think an Apple streaming service is going to push out Pandora. I actually think Pandora is going to thrive. Apple’s streaming service, because it will be pre-populated on every iPhone, iPad, etc. will have massive scale, but will struggle to convert users from rival services. It will pave the way for 2016 though, when I think Apple’s streaming model will take off. This was a home run, across the board. Apple purchased Beats, turned it into Apple Music, launched a free trial and now has nearly 1/3 the number of paying subscribers as Spotfiy. Depending on how you cut the data, it’s either #2 or #3 in the marketplace. As they propelled forward we saw upstarts like Tidal flop and mainstays like Pandora and Last.FM are beginning the death spiral.
  2. We Will See A Resurgence In Radio: Similar to vinyl’s growth and comeback, I think the shift toward a streaming and on-demand world is going to propel radio forward. Additionally, people’s desire for local information and knowledge will keep them coming back. We might see some consolidation in radio stations or a consolidation in large network holding companies, but, the overall health of radio will be much better than it has been the past few years. A mixed bag here. If you look at radio as being live traditional radio, digital radio streaming (eg I Heart Radio) and satellite radio, I was wrong. It’s flat or slightly down. But, if you account for podcast usage, I nailed it. Podcasts (who knew) are driving radio growth. Given that Nielsen and other reporting services consider podcasts, “radio”, I’m taking this as a win.
  3. Google+ And Google Glass Will Be Retired: Google may evolve these products and then call them something else, but you will not see Google+ and Google Glass as platforms or products, come the close of 2015. Depending on your perspective this was a 50% right or 100% right, perspective. Google Glass is dead; yes dead. Officially, Google+ isn’t dead and it’s shifted as to being a connection platform . But, that’s like saying, technically, Tidal isn’t dead. By technicality, I’m going with 100% right, because I didn’t say Google+ would die. I did say it might pivot, which it has.
  4. A Governing Body, Most Likely The FDA, Will Crack Down On The Wearables Market, Forcing Many To Fold: Ultimately, these products are edging closer and closer to medical devices. But, manufacturers aren’t treating them as such. They’re instead treating them like casual gadgets, when they are obviously more than that. This is going to cause a problem for these who didn’t take the time to work with governing bodies to ensure they’re products were legit, honest and legally factual. Total miss. Never happened. The FDA even said, they have no interest in regulating this industry, right now.
  5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens Will Become The Highest Grossing Movie Of All Time: Technically, this won’t happen until 2016, but the movie launches in 2015. The total worldwide sales will make Frozen look pedestrian.
  6. Google’s Search Business Will Have A Down Year: Yes, I’m serious. Their dominant core product is going to run just a tick above flat. I want to make sure I’m clear here when I say “core product.” At the end of the day, Google’s core product is making money of off search results. The majority of those results take place in the traditional Google.com experience. It will retain it’s overall dominance on broad searches, but as people continue to browse and discover, we’re going to see search volume shift to places and platforms like Facebook, Pinterest, Spotify, Flickr, fourSquare and YouTube. Yes, YouTube. Instead of going to Google and typing in “Star Wars Trailer”, people are going to start going directly to YouTube to perform those searches. Net-net, we’re going to see a big shift from “search” to browse and discover. No matter how you look at it, Google had a down year for traditional search. Here’s two great articles, one from Business Insider (yes, Business Insider) shows the macro shift and this article covering Google’s Q3 financial results, shows search to be struggling, though not failing. Revenue up, CPC’s are down and usage is down, except in mobile. This prediction came true.
  7. The Apple Watch Will Be A Success For Apple, But Will Fail To Propel The Smart Watch Category Forward: You might be saying huh? Ok, let me explain. Apple has a problem. Specifically, they have a problem with the iPad. The core iPhone business is great, but the iPad is so good, it doesn’t require people to upgrade often. The Apple Watch will fill the void of the slumping iPad sales, but it won’t be a big enough to make smart watches a must have accessory for the broader consumer market. Happened. It’s a billion dollar business. The Apple Watch is #1 in the smartwatch category, but the smartwatch category is still tiny.
  8. There Will Be A Major Cloud Services Hack That Will Take Down A Number Of Major Platforms: I don’t know which service is going to hacked. What I know is that something is going to get hacked and it’s going to have a major impact. For example, imagine Pandora getting hacked and having that hack impact all the cars that have Pandora installed. It’s going to be something like that. There were some pretty hefty data breaches. I’m looking at you Snapchat…again. But, there was nothing that was widespread to the point that it acted like a daisy chain and impacted dozens of companies. I missed on this.
  9. The C-Suite Will See A Major Overhaul: Two things are going to happen. One, we’re going to see a premium on digital experience and background. For example, instead of seeing the traditional CMO model (brand management + MBA), we’ll see someone that comes from a tech background. Additionally, we’ll see a premium on ethics and “clean” backgrounds. You can’t pull another Gurbaksh Chahal and stay employed. It just can’t happen. To be bold, I think we’ll see 3 C-Suite execs, from startup/tech organizations, eliminated because of public / negative PR. Additionally, I think we’ll see a major organization, like Target, follow the Walgreens playbook and elevate a digital leader into a CMO role. So, I went big on this one. It’s a mix of right and wrong with the predictions. Let’s start with the C-Suite emphasis on digital. I nailed this one. Take your pick on the examples. You have Barnes & Noble, The White House, LVMH and so on. C-suites are recognizing the need for digital talent at the most senior level. What hasn’t seemed to happen, which is surprising to me, is that the people taking these roles aren’t younger or from more non-traditional backgrounds. I imagine that will change in time. With respect to the job eliminations, there weren’t many to speak of, which is a good thing. That doesn’t mean there wasn’t drama or a lot of firings for doing or saying dumb things. But, there wasn’t a C-level person at a large organization or startup that was relieved of his/her duties for saying/doing something that society deemed unfit. Net-net, this was a 50/50 prediction.
  10. Publicis Or Another Large Agency Holding Company, Will Take A Run At A Major Merger: Following the failed Publicis-Omnicom merger, we’re going to see pride, ego and financial pressure force an attempt at another mega merger. I could see IPG and MDC combining forces, or WPP and IPG. This will happen, if for no other reason than the world isn’t big enough for 5+ holding companies. Total miss. Never happened. There were some minor things done by Publicis. But, there was no mega merger, and apparently, for good reason.

Not bad. Not perfect. But, not bad. By my count I was correct on 1, 2, 3, 6 and 7. I whiffed on 4, 8 and 10. 9 was 1/2 correct and 1/2 wrong. The jury is still out on 5, but there’s no doubt it’ll be the highest grossing movie of all time, based on the early sales performance of pre-purchased tickets. With that in mind, I’m taking it as a win and will modify if proven wrong. Thus the tally is 6.5 right and 3.5 wrong, for a 65% hit rate. Considering how much bolder these predictions were, I’ll take it! That brings my 4-year tally to 75.7% (26.5/35). If this were Vegas and I was playing the tables or sports book, I’d be rich. But, alas, there are no prizes here.

I’ll have my 2016 predictions up by Christmas. Thanks for reading.

The Incredible Difficulty Of Focusing

Steve Jobs Quote, Credit Tribal Rain Makers Club

Think about this for a second. In a given year, you have 1800 hours to allocate, at work. 1800 hours? Do the math. A “traditional” work week is 40 hours, with 1 hour of lunch each day, which means 35 hours a week. A traditional vacation time, is 2 weeks, which means, you’re working 50 weeks a year. 50 weeks a year X 35 hours is 1750 hours, rounded up, is 1800 hours.

Now, yes, I realize, the typical person doesn’t work 1800 hours. Many of us work north of 2000 hours. But, for all intents and purposes for this blog post, let’s call it 1800 hours. Each one of those hours is precious. An hour chasing down a really “cool” idea, while invigorating and exciting, might be time poorly spent, if it takes you away from your core focus.

This is something that sales staff members on LinkedIn, who spam your inbox, don’t comprehend. If I have an extra hour (which never happens) and my choices are to listen to a random cold call pitch or spend an hour reviewing progress against goals, meeting with my team, etc. – I can tell you the cold call pitch, won’t be at the top of the list.

Additionally, it’s why, over the years, I’ve pared back the number of conferences I attend. There’s no shortage of great conferences to attend, but with each one you eat into those 1800 hours. That 3 hour flight is expensive; maybe not in actually dollars, but in time. The 3 days at the conference, while beneficial, needs to be weighed against, what else you could be doing.

Focusing is hard, because it requires you to say no to the wrong thing, so that you can say yes to the right thing. And often times, saying no, can make you come across as difficult or not a team player. Saying no, also means, you may not pursue something that excites you. It requires discipline.

5 years ago, my point of view, on focus, would have been much different. As it would have been, 10 years ago. A decade back, all I wanted to work on was the interesting, sexy, cool and of course, potentially award winning, projects. I raised my hand for every would be, could be, might be, fun project.

Today, that’s just not possible. There are so many cool, fun and interesting initiatives, that I’d love to participate in. Even if only to listen to how my team is going to tackle the challenge. But, realistically, it’s just not possible. To get something, you often have to give up something. To stay focused on the objectives I have, unfortunately, I miss out on many things that stoke the flames of my interest. That, however, is a conscious choice.

I certainly don’t have it all figured out, but there are 3 things I do to keep me focused:

  1. Have a clear understanding of my objectives and how they ladder back to the division and company objectives. But, equally important, is understanding how you’ll translate them into something meaningful, tangible and measurable for your team members. Every week I chart the progress towards those objectives and every month I manage up by asking if they’re still relevant and if there are any new objectives, that we haven’t accounted for. You can’t set and forget your objectives. They aren’t written once at the beginning to the year and then evaluated at the end.
  2. I create filters to manage requests. I’m sure your inbox is filled with meeting invites, “quick questions”, so-called “emergencies” and 1-off projects. If you say yes to all of them, you’re doomed. But, you can’t say no to them all, either. When I get a request, I ask myself 2 basic questions: 1, will this help drive my core objectives? 2, will this make the organization better. Ideally, the answer to both, is yes. If, however, you have something that, isn’t part of your core objectives, but could improve the organization, that’s a conversation worth having.
  3. I find an hour every day to do two things. I make sure to “walk the floor” and check-in with my team and my colleagues. Sometimes just stopping by, opens up a dialogue, where I can be helpful. Walking the floor, also gets me out of my office, provides a well needed break in the day and provides accessibility to my team. Additionally, I make time to work on pet projects. This could be something I’m pursuing on my own, or something I’m helping someone else with. Either way, I make sure to plan for these types of initiatives in my 1800 hours.

That’s it. Simple as they seem, it’s incredible challenging to stay to the plan. There’s always something vying for your attention. But, remember, you can’t get something, without giving up something. It’s all about choices. No one is busy, they simply have a priority that’s more important than your priority.