Opinions And Ramblings By Adam Kmiec On All Things

“Nothing Left To Do But Smile”

My dad loved Jerry Garcia and The Grateful Dead. Jerry sang it best, when he said, “Nothing left to do, but smile.” I think my dad, would have agreed. He passed away at 12:13 AM on September 11, 2018, after suffering a brain stem stroke, following open heart surgery. My brother and I were there with him, in the room, when we finally left us. It’s a surreal experience to watch your dad slip away. But, I’m glad he’s no longer on machines that were artificially giving us the false representation of life. There were only 3 things, my dad habitually reminded me, when it came to his passing:

  1. Don’t let me become a vegetable, connected to machines.
  2. Make sure you cremate me. When I go, I want to just fade away. Spread my ashes at Washington Square Park.
  3. At the end, that’s when you can finally have all my f!$%ing vinyl.

We agree on #1 and #2. Except, when I go, sprinkle me off the BROOKLYN Bridge. As for #3, the man had an amazing vinyl collection. We’re talking first pressings of the White Album, The Wall and Born in the USA. He refused to give me a single record and would playfully remind me, only when he’s not there to play them, will I get my hands on them. I loved him for his simplicity, consistency, and facetiousness.

My Dad, Robert Kmiec.

My dad was never much of a religious man. As a scientist, I think it always bothered him that you couldn’t prove the existence of a higher power. And yet, the dreamer in him, always acknowledged it was possible that there was an afterlife.

I started writing this in 2013. I knew it would be incredibly difficult to put into words what I wanted to say about my dad. Having spent the past few days finishing this, I’m glad I started it 5 years ago.

I want to tell you about my dad. He was my best friend. My dad once remarked fathers should not have to bury their children. He was right. But, just because the natural order is that a son should bury his father, doesn’t mean this is easy.

I wish I knew my dad before life got in the way. Before a car loan. Before a mortgage. Before life wore him down and turned him into a semi-recluse. I wish I knew him as the confident young man who walked into the small shop where my mom worked and sweet talked her into a first date…using Peanut M&Ms as a conversation piece.

I wish my kids knew my dad, the way I knew my dad growing up. I wish my son could have thrown a baseball with him, while he explained the physics of a curve ball. I wish my daughter could have posed tough questions, requiring lengthy, rich explanations that were bound to spark further curiosity. I just wish there was more time.

My dad was many things.

A Teacher
He taught me how to ride a bike. He taught me to catch a ball. He taught me to be a father.

A Contrarian
He so enjoyed taking an opposing position, if only to inspire better discussion and dialogue. He knew exactly what to say to make my mom’s blood boil. And he’d do it with a smirk.

A Romantic
For all of his sarcasm and wit, the man loved a good love story. When love would make you do something stupid, he was the first person to look the other way. After all, the heart wants what the heart wants.

A Movie Enthusiast
He loved a good movie, especially those full of symbolism. His ability to quote a movie and tie it into a life lesson was uncanny. And it stuck with you. I can’t begin to count the number of times he quoted ‘The Natural’. He’d tell me, “You’ve got a gift Roy… but it’s not enough – you’ve got to develop yourself. If you rely too much on your own gift… then… you’ll fail.” I remind my own son of that wisdom, on a routine basis.

Above all, he taught me how to live. When life would punch me in the gut, he knew what to say. If work was complicated, he found a way to make it simple. When my kids would make me crazy, he made me appreciate that madness. I would not be me, without him.

Some of the best moments in my life were spent on my drives home, talking with my dad on the phone. For years it was a nearly every day occurrence. Then we stopped. I really wish we hadn’t.

As we celebrate his all too short and complicated life, think back to a moment; I’m sure we all have one, where my dad said something so profound, it made you pause. It made you hesitate. It made you think just a little bit longer and a little bit deeper. He had such a knack for that.

Our lives are all a bit emptier because he’s no longer with us. But, even in death, he’s still teaching us. We get one body, take care of it. We get one life, fill it with memories.

What I Missed In Social Media

House, M.D. Quote

It’s been nearly 7 months since I gave up social media cold turkey. Every year I take on 3 challenges and one of this year’s three was giving up social media. The decision was ultimately quite easy. Towards the end of 2017 my social media feed and morphed into a cesspool of political posts, complaints and anger. That’s not what made social media fun, interesting or satisfying. Heck, even, Facebook admitted social had gone off the rails.

At the start of July, this year, as I was working on my mid-year analysis of my 2018 predictions, I decided to log back into Facebook, Pinterest, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn and Swarm to see if I had been missing anything. To be clear, while I have been completely off the platforms, I do log in to Facebook Messenger when I receive a message and LinkedIn to accept requests and respond to messages. With that out of the way, the real question of course was, had I been missing out on anything of substance? The short answer, no.

However, there’s a much longer answer that provides more nuance and specificity. Let me start with the broad strokes.

  1. There wasn’t anything happening on social media that I wasn’t learning about from someone or someplace else. For example, person A started a new job. I got a text from person B asking me if I’d heard that person A got a new job. Person C got a new dog. Heard about it from person C, in person. Person D, went on a trip to location Z. I heard about it from person E.
  2. News still traveled, but it traveled slower. Apps like Apple News and Flipboard are great aggregators of news and information, but they’re delayed in providing updates. Twitter, in particular, is lightning fast and I would say of all the social platforms, the one I miss the most.
  3. Of the things I was missing out on, after re-engaging for a few days, I’m glad I missed out on them. Social media has an ability to turn everything into a tempest in a teapot. We see the very best in humanity, but also the very worst.

So, it’s fair to say, I didn’t really miss out on anything, but it’s also fair to say the absence of social media from my day slowed down the speed of information and altered the impact of information because of how I was learning about it. Seeing a photo of someone’s 1st house is different than hearing they bought a house.

My two weeks back in social, as a lurker, confirmed a few basic rules about social media that I’d become lax on.

  1. Garbage in, Garbage Out: What you see in your social media feed is directly tied to what and who you follow. If you follow a person who Instagrams 50X a day about how they run every day and lust to travel all the time, guess what? Yep, your feed is going to be taken over by photos and videos of running and travel photos. If you follow political zealots, you can’t complain about the multitude of “the sky is falling” tweets or status updates.
  2. As Gregory House once said, “People don’t change. They just become more of who they really are.” Social media is a mirror, megaphone and magnifying glass. If there was ever a thought that things might change in the 6 months I was off social media, within the 1st 10-minutes, it was clear what a misguided thought that was. This isn’t necessarily bad. If there’s a person who generally shared photos of their family trips, it was likely that’s exactly what they’re still sharing. Conversely, if you’re the person who takes the approach of, let me share with you slices of my life that make it seem that I have the most amazing life ever…it’s pretty much unlikely that’s going to change in 6 months. Thus, if you’re expecting people to change, it’s a fool’s errand and you only have yourself to blame for expecting people to do so.

On the whole, dropping social media has been more good than bad. I’m happier, less frustrated and certainly more engaged in the moment. There’s a certain freedom that comes from not having to wonder how to best Instagram this meal…before I eat it. Now, I just eat.

Partnerships, Tough Decisions And Non-Negotiables

Come Together

It took me about 12 years into my career, to realize 3 critical things that would help shape the past 8 years and ultimately, make me a much better leader.

  1. You will get more done, go further, move quicker and have higher performing teams if you’re willing to partner. I think a lot of people think they’re good partners or are willing partners, but in fact are only doing it half-way. I was guilty of this too. What made all the difference was a willingness to give up, in order to get. Trying to protect your scope, build a wall around your function or restraining / controlling your team will only get you so far. But, if you’re willing to operate with blurry lines, give up control and realize you don’t need to own it to make it a success, you’ll be all the more successful for it.
  2. There is no joy that comes in making tough decisions, but joy and satisfaction can be found in making them. Too often what goes unsaid are the most important things. When someone asks for your honest opinion, you owe it to them, your team and yourself to say it…and say it with impact, in plain language.
  3. Some things simply matter more. Think about buying a car. You might want that car to be grey in color, have 4 doors, be blessed with heated seats, include a moonroof, etc. But, when push comes to shove, some of them are nice to have and some of them are mandatory. Those mandatory features are the non-negotiables. They’re the ones you can’t live without, no matter what else is thrown in. Knowing those non-negotiables upfront makes for better outcomes, faster decision making, and clearer expectations.

In 2012, Michael Eisner, the former CEO of Disney published a book titled, “Working Together, Why Great Partnerships Succeed” – It’s a great read, with each chapter highlighting different seminal moments in his career, where it was clear, partnerships lead to better outcomes.

The best passage, for me, and the one that hits on all 3 of the lessons I’ve learned, is in the first chapter. In it, Eisner tells the story about what happened when he was offered the job of Co-CEO at Disney. As Co-CEO, he would have shared the CEO title and responsibility with Frank Wells.

This is the passage:

“You and Frank,” Stanley summarized, “will be co-CEOs. You will share power at the top of the company, and together report to the board of directors. You’ll handle the creative side. He’ll handle the business side. But you’ll be equals.”

“I really don’t want to do this unless I’m the sole CEO,” I heard myself saying. “I’m extremely flattered, of course, but I just don’t think that arrangement makes sense.”

There was an utter quiet in the room. As I would tell Jane that night, I couldn’t believe what I had just said. Sure, I believed what I was saying, but still: the most storied entertainment company in the world was offering me a parachute away from what threatened to become for me a Hollywood dungeon, and I was telling them their plan wouldn’t fly.

Maybe, though, I had an instinct. Even if I was overplaying my hand, maybe, just maybe, it might work.

Less than three seconds later, Frank Wells broke the silence. “Okay,” he said. “You can be chairman and CEO, and I’ll be president and COO.”

If I had stunned myself by blurting out my own demand, I was, silently, at least doubly shocked by Frank’s reply. After all, he had set up the plan that they proposed. Fortunately, I had learned early in my career to take yes for an answer. Too many times a person is told okay, and then says, “Really? You must be kidding. I can do that?” I knew when to say yes. So I simply said, “Great. I’m in.”

But in the days and weeks ahead, I found myself wondering about Frank. What kind of person would spend his life so successfully climbing his way up the corporate ladder and then, at the very top, step aside for someone else—and someone else, for that matter, he didn’t know very well? I had spent the previous twenty years working in a terrific partnership alongside Barry Diller, one of the most brilliant executives the entertainment world has ever seen, but now, this Frank Wells appeared to be a different sort of animal: an executive who could cede power just like that, and be as comfortable as a number two as he was as a number one. Could that really be true?

I was about to find out. Frank and I got the jobs, just as we had defined them that day on the terrace at Stanley Gold’s house. We were headed into the toughest challenge of our professional lives, together. For the next ten years, that journey would be as exciting, enjoyable, rewarding, and triumphant as either of us could have dared to hope. From our first day in the office that fall, my partnership with Frank Wells taught me what it was like to work with somebody who not only protected the organization but protected me, advised me, supported me, and did it all completely selflessly. I’d like to think I did the same for Frank, as well as the company. We grew together, learned together, and discovered together how to turn what was in retrospect a small business into indeed a very big business.

We learned that one plus one adds up to a lot more than two. We learned just how rewarding working together can be.

I’ve referenced that book and this story before. It’s a book I refer back to quite often. That story always sticks out. But, it’s incredibly telling not only about the type of leader Eisner was, but also the type of leader Frank Wells was. While the story is from Eisner’s point of view, I would love to have heard it from Wells’ as well. I suspect it would have been something to the effect of:

In that moment, I realized that having the title of sole CEO was Michael’s non-negotiable. I couldn’t care less about my title. Disney was big enough for both of us to be busy, inspired and impactful. What I did know is that there was no way I’d be successful without someone like Michael as a partner. For me, the decision was easy. I would take the role of COO, Michael could be CEO and we’d accomplish more together than apart. I’d have to give up the title of CEO to get something much more valuable; the success for Disney that we both craved and the board demanded.

Maybe not 100% what he would have said, but I suspect, pretty close. It’s also the approach I’ve taken of late and I couldn’t be more satisfied.

Mary Meeker Is Santa Claus

Christmas is Christmas, but my “work” Christmas has always been the day Mary Meeker publishes her state of the internet report. Meeker is a legend in the industry and works for Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, one of the largest venture firms in the country. This is the 23rd year she’s compiled her report. That’s just astonishing and honestly something worth applauding. Her report is always a treasure trove of data, insights, and trends that can benefit any organization.

This report is often well covered and this year’s installment is no different. My personal favorite link of the coverage is This One from Business Insider.

It’s a long deck, but worth the read. However, I went through the slides and the analysis to create a cliff notes version of trends that I found the most interesting, with my notes in bold.

  • Meeker asks, “Will market forces finally come to health care and drive prices lower for consumers?” Everyone industry, right now, is focused on value and experience. Retail is redesigning stores to improve experience. Hotels are improving the experience. Restaurants are focused on creating better experiences. Health care is doing the same. People will want more value for their health care dollar.
  • The number of Internet users now exceeds 50% of the world’s population. This is a big-time inflection point. While 50% isn’t 100%, it’s still mainstream and you could argue saturated in mature markets. That means growth is going to slow. It also means everyone, is basically on the internet. Remember when we questioned who was on the internet?
  • The average person spends 6 hours a day with their digital devices (eg smartphone). Building on the above previous point, if we want to connect with audiences, we really need to think about using digital more. And, digital isn’t just one channel or location. It’s MANY locations, tools and methods.
  • People spend 30 minutes each day watching video on mobile devices. I was equal parts surprised with how small this is and yet, not surprised we aren’t tilting our neck down for hours at a time. That said, building on the previous 2 bullets, to connect with people, we need to consider video and mobile. But, mobile is unique. We can’t copy and paste what we’re doing elsewhere. For example, a press release doesn’t read well on a mobile device.
  • Voice is no longer a plaything. Amazon has sold over 30 million Echo units and the accuracy of voice platforms (Alexa, Siri) is well over 90%. The future is closer than we think and understanding how voice “works” is really important. Creating content so voice can find it and use it is different than creating content for a laptop or phone.
  • Amazon has usurped Google as the starting point for product searches. Even as big as Amazon gets, they still need Google and Facebook to be successful. I think it’s important for a few reasons. One, yes, focus on Amazon, but if all you focus on is Amazon, you’ll miss out on all the opportunity. We need to focus on everyone.
  • Uber is not as ubiquitous as we think. In 4 of the 5 largest cities it’s cheaper to Uber all the time than own a car. The outlier? Dallas. We can’t just adopt a mass approach to a trend. Uber is big, yes, but not everyone uses it. When we think about transportation (aka ACCESS), we need to think about all the barriers and enablers.
  • There are an estimated 6.8 million people working in the gig economy. This is huge. Most of this is in transportation. But, what’s the next major industry to rely on the on-demand / gig economy? Would it be crazy to see this extend to health care? Probably not. It also makes me think about the need to take this into consideration when we consider talent / “hiring”. Not everyone wants to be full time.
  • We’re entering the age of the privacy paradox. Companies (mostly tech) are stuck between using data to make the experience better and using it to further their bottom line. This isn’t overly surprising and quickly this is going to move from tech companies to other industries. The fine line I’ve always advised the organizations I’ve worked in to adhere to is, be helpful, not creepy.
  • WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger and WeChat have more than 1 billion monthly active users. I know people who use FB Messenger more than they text or email. We’re going to see these platforms, became real, well…platforms. For example, would it be crazy to use FBM for a virtual doctor’s visit? We aren’t far from it.

The above was designed to condense the 200+ slides into points that represent the opportunities and interesting points that caught my attention. Happy reading and let me know caught your eye.

The Worst Thing About The Pharmacy Experience

If there’s one thing I know a lot about, it’s the pharmacy patient experience. After working on the Rite Aid business for years and working at Walgreens for some time, I’ve seen a significant amount of research, patient feedback and other data about the pharmacy patient experience.

Imagine this situation. Your kids are sick. They’re miserable. The flu has completely knocked them out. You’ve been up for days watching what you thought was a cold, become the full-blown flu. Except that it’s not just the flu, nope, you got lucky, it’s all bronchitis. You take the day off and bring your kids into their primary care physician. They indicate yep, these kids are sick. They send you on your way with some instructions about rest and hydration, but also call in some prescriptions to your local pharmacy. Now, you know that it usually takes about 15 minutes to have your medication ready and you’re relieved that those scripts will be ready by the time you show up from the doctor’s office.

All good right? Not exactly. You get to the pharmacy, provide your name and the pharmacist comes back with bad news. Unfortunately, your prescriptions are not ready because they required prior authorization and as such, they need to get in touch with some combination of your insurance company and your physician. That relief you felt is replaced with anger and disbelief.

I’ve seen the above situation play out all too many times in customer feedback and I’ve also been that patient. It doesn’t have to be that way. Seriously.

PreCheck MyScript is a new product that doctors can use to make it quicker and easier for patients to get their prescriptions. It effectively takes the guesswork out of the experience. Not only do you avoid the painful experience I outlined above, but you’ll also know the medication cost before you even leave your doctor’s office. No, it’s not magic or some type of sorcery. It’s just PreCheck MyScript, another way UnitedHealthcare is making the patient experience smoother, while providing even more transparency.

I’m really thrilled with the video my team created to help create awareness about PreCheck MyScript. They knocked it out of the park. For those of you in the industry, you know how challenging it is to simplify something complex. They absolutely delivered on that challenge. More to come.

Add 3 New Things Every Year

Never Stop Learning

A few years back, just after I turned 30, I realized the need to find new ways to refresh my brain. There are several studies that show the how learning new skills like painting, helps fight off Alzheimer’s disease. I wondered if I could apply the concept at an earlier age. I also wondered if the brain could be trained and worked out, like a muscle. There’s a significant amount of data that shows muscles stop improving if you keep training them the same way. The experts call it muscle confusion.

In my first year I took up:

  1. Snowboarding: after years of skiing, I made the switch. This was more than just a challenge. In solidarity with my kids, we were going to take on something new together. They were learning skiing and I promised to fall down with them as I learned snowboarding.
  2. Boxing: still til this day, one of the best workouts you can have. It’s high octane and the sweat is real.
  3. Target Shooting: bought a pistol after a grueling Illinois background check process, took some classes and hit the range.

Over the years this concept of learning and trying 3 new things every year, lead to my new found love of soccer (a success) and my attempt to understand Snapchat (a failure).

This habit has been incredibly rewarding and fun. The pursuit of knowledge acquired from experience can be a lifetime quest.

This year I’m investing my time into 3 areas:

  1. Carbonated Beverages: Pepsi, Red Bull and I have a long-term relationship. At my most recent annual physical, which I passed with flying colors, I asked my doctor what more I could do. He suggested giving up white food, like bread and giving up on sugary carbonated beverages. I said, “Doc, I’m not going to lie. The bread thing ain’t happening.” But, I knew carbonated beverages would just be a battle of willpower. Challenge accepted.
  2. Social Media: In 2018 I’m eliminating all social media from my diet. No Facebook. No twitter. No Instagram. The “connection” I once found through social media barely exists. My feed, once filled with interesting, joyous and meaningful moments has been replaced with partisan politics, the narcissism of the “selfie”, armchair experts and one-upsmanship. I wonder if my health and sanity will be better without it. We’ll see.
  3. Building: I’m not sure what it will be, but I intend to improve upon the horribly designed shelf I made in 6th-grade shop class.

Maybe 3 is too many for you. Maybe 3 is too few. Either way, I highly encourage you to look for new ways of retraining your brain. Not only will you learn something new, you’ll have fun. An easy way to start is to ask your kids, nieces and nephews what they want to see you try. A child’s imagination is second to none.

The Modern Workforce

Work From Home - Image Credit, OboLinx.com

No doubt, the “modern workforce” is changing. We’re seeing a rapid evolution of what it means to “work.” Yes, there are still some salaried industries that rely on coming in by 9, leaving by 5 and taking your negotiated 1-hour lunch break. However, that approach is becoming the exception, not the rule.

Some 10 years back, when I was living in Omaha, Nebraska and working in digital marketing for ConAgra Foods, a senior exec educated me on “office space.” He explained, in a perfect world, the organization would have no office space. Physical space is an incredibly expensive liability on the books. With physical space comes rent, insurance, maintenance, overhead, taxes and a host of other line items. As he explained, if the company cooks fully eliminate its physical space cost, it could reinvest into compensation, R&D and other areas.

Fast forward a few more year’s and I’m at The Campbell Soup Company. Our CIO was light years ahead in thinking. Not only did the concept of world with zero real estate make sense, he argued companies should go a step further and embrace a full being your own device model. BYOD is often used for cell phone. You bring your phone, you pay for the service and the company lets you access your corporate email on the device. He wanted to embrace a concept where the organization would provide the “software”, but the employee brings the hardware. If you want to use a Mac, cool. ChromeBook? Fine. What happens in this model? Well, the cost of the device shifts to to the employee, as does maintenance, repairs, etc. The company wipes a great deal of liability off its books.

As we step into 2018, we’re not just ready for these two concepts to collide, we’re already seeing the value of it. This sponsored advertorial in Inc lays out a lot of the benefits of organizations that embrace a work from home model. At UnitedHealth Group, we’re routinely a top employer for remote and work from home staff. More than 40% of employees across UHG and its companies are remote. We’re at the forefront of this evolution and have been for some time.

Work from home, for a number of reasons, will become the default, instead of the rarity. Now, as Uncle Ben told Peter Parker, with great power comes great responsibility. Marissa Mayer famously found out, quite easily, that remote workers, were, well, not working.

When you’re remote, you need to be even more present than when physically in the office. You can’t be “that person” on a conference call, clearly tuned out. A work from home model can quickly go sideways. For example, regardless of the reality, the optics of a situation where someone “works from home” on Friday and Monday, are never good. There will be a portion of the employee population that assumes they’re simply taking a 4-day vacation, every week.

Then, you have a situation, I’ve unfortunately seen too often. Combine a loose work from home policy with employees who basically take 2-week vacations every other month, by “working from home” at their vacation destination, and you have a powder keg. Rarely is this successful. We may be embracing the future, but old habits die hard.

I’ve also seen the very best in remote workers. At Walgreens I had employee who lived more than 4 time zones away, but was not only one of the most engaged employees, was also one of the best performers.

The challenge with the new modern workforce environment is that each person is still unique. I could never thrive in a fully work from home model. I enjoy the face to face human interaction. I also think I’m more effective presenting and collaborating in person. However, other team members function better in isolation and seek it.

Having a high functioning team is, to me, more important than having a single high performing team member. No person is above the team. If a single person’s work-style preference negatively impacts the sum of the team, their preference is rarely worth it. Opportunities should be given to make work style preferences, well, work. However, there’s a difference between providing meaningful opportunity to succeed and being asleep at the wheel. Candidly, some employees are not cut out to succeed I’m working from home.

What Will Happen In 2018, Maybe

Looking at the Eclipse, Sourced from NASA

2017 was a bounce-back year for my predictions. After a dreadful 2016, 2017’s predictions were good considering how risky some of them were. With 2018 just around the corner, it’s time to gaze into the crystal ball and outline what I think is going to happen. As I have in years before I’ll be using some basic principles for the 2018 predictions.

  • My predictions generally cover the marketing, advertising, and technology industry. On occasion, I veer into pop culture, politics or other areas that interest me.
  • I try to avoid softballs. The mainstream media already takes the role of Captain Obvious.
  • I never use any so-called “insider” knowledge. I simply state what I think will happen.
  • Just because I think something is likely to happen doesn’t mean I want it to happen.
  • Come next December I’ll grade myself. Every prediction I nailed gets 1 point, the ones I miss receive 0 points and a partially correct prediction garners .5 a point. Where possible, I look to avoid awarding .5 points.

With all of that out of the way, let’s get on with it.

  1. The Apple HomePod will flop. The launch delay was the first sign. The significant ground it has to make up with Google and Amazon are another. But, it will be Apple’s walled garden approach, combined with price, that will ultimately make it dead on arrival.
  2. The AT&T – Time Warner merger will not happen at all or will only happen if they choose to make significant divestitures.
  3. The contrast of #2 is that the Fox – Disney merger will happen without issue.
  4. This will be a big year for M&A, mostly out of necessity. I predict 3 large deals beyond the above, from lands of media, retail and CPG.
  5. Augmented Reality will plateau in interest and adoption. It was always a gimmick and the slow death knell of Pokemon Go is the tip of the iceberg.
  6. The concerns over Net Neutrality will be for naught. There will be at least 1 major initiative that shows how deregulation leads to innovation.
  7. Facebook growth slows, but Facebook the company continues to see enormous growth, buoyed by WhatsApp and Instagram.
  8. Tesla and Netflix will have down years. Netflix’s debt will be a problem for investors. That debt combined with continued growth from Hulu, YouTube, Disney and others will force changes. With Tesla, they will once again miss shipments, over-promise, under-deliver, but this time, it will catch up to them.
  9. Bitcoin and all its variants will see a massive fall off in valuation. This will happen as traditional monetary institutions continue their assault on Bitcoin and a massive data breach / hack / fraud / theft will take place.
  10. Robert Mueller’s probe will conclude and will yield nothing of substance. Substance will be evaluated as yielding something that would have grounds for an impeachment vote. There will not be an impeachment vote.
  11. There will be a backlash against the #MeToo movement when false accusations are made and found to have been made for political or corporate gain.
  12. Twitter will have a better year than Snap, as measured by stock price change.
  13. Amazon will face a large government inquiry. It won’t antitrust, but it will be something in that area.
  14. Three things will happen in the gaming world: Nintendo will have a bad year. They will struggle to grow with a walled garden model, inferior hardware and a poor understanding of how gaming works on phones. The uproar over EA’s approach to microtransactions for Star Wars Battlefront II will shape the industry at large. Specifically, there will be an effort to curb or eliminate micro-transactions altogether. Microsoft will announce the next evolution of the Xbox. This won’t be a minor upgrade like the “S” or the “X”, it will be the next generation.
  15. A major sports league will adopt technology on field to assist with calls. For example, FIFA will adopt replay or the NFL will add chips into footballs to determine if they break the goal line.
  16. Whiskey will have a down year, with gin and rum seeing a resurgence. Star Wars: Episode VIII, the Last Jedi will go down as the worst fan rated Star Wars movie, as measured by Rotten Tomatoes.
  17. Harley Davidson will introduce a mass-market electric motorcycle.
  18. A major motion picture will be released simultaneously at the box office and for streaming.
  19. There will be 5 states that will legalize / introduce recreational marijuana laws. The tax money is simply too good to pass up.
  20. Pinterest will IPO. It will be successful.
  21. The lesson from Mashable will be repeated. So-called “new media” companies, once considered darlings, will start to implode. I see bad years for Vox and Buzzfeed.

That’s a wrap. We’ll revisit this mid-year to see how things are shaping up and again at the end of the year to see how I did.

What Pep Guardiola Can Teach Us About Management

Pep Confidential

For my money, the three greatest non-traditional books on leadership are Tribes, Patton and His 3rd Army and Sacred Hoops. Tribes is the closest to being a traditional leadership book, because of its core theme. However, when I think of traditional leadership books, I’m referring to books like the over-recommended ‘Good to Great’, ‘Blue Ocean’ and ‘The One Thing You Need to Know.’ Meanwhile, ‘Patton and his 3rd Army’ is such an insider’s view of the decisions leaders are faced with, under duress. ‘Sacred Hoops’ is nothing like any “management” book I’ve ever written. Yes, there are management tools, so to speak, in the book, but it’s more about the soft skills needed to lead.

As many of you know, I’ve recently gotten into soccer. In doing so, I picked Manchester City as my team. Last year they brought on Pep Guardiola, widely considered to be one of the best futbol managers ever. He gets results with incredibly distinct and unique methods. A couple of weeks back I ordered, ‘Pep Confidential: The Inside Story of Pep Guardiola’s First Season at Bayern Munich‘, by Martí Perarnau. It’s a good read if you’re a soccer fan or someone focused on continually learning new leadership and management skills.

While I don’t think the book is as well written as Sacred Hoops, I will say it’s a heck of a page-turner. The author’s access to Pep, his team, and the players is astonishing. I learned a lot about soccer and leadership.

My 5 takeaways from the book, as it relates to management and leadership:

  1. Organizational design / philosophy is not that the same as an org chart. In the context of soccer, a philosophy to dominate possession is not equal to a playing formation like 4-4-2. You can have that philosophy in a number of tactical lineups.
  2. If you want an organization to change, you have to change as well. Pep comes to Germany, bringing a new system, staff, and ideas. What does he do? He learns German and provides instructions in German. He also works on his English, which he knows is also widely understood in Germany.
  3. Everyone deserves the chance to buy in, but if someone doesn’t buy in, you have to get rid of them or take them out of the equation. That someone can be a star player. When Zlatan wasn’t playing as instructed, Pep benched him. To make the system work, no star can shine brighter.
  4. Ignore positions and labels. Players are told and accept that they are a fullback, midfielder, striker, winger, etc. This is limiting. Instead, you must look at competency. Does someone have the ability to play multiple positions? It’s quite possible they can. As a Manchester City fan, I’m seeing that happen every day. He’s taking midfielders and making the fullbacks. He’s taking strikers and having them play as wingers. He’s brilliant in this approach.
  5. It never hurts to get the band back together. Part of the reason managers bring in people they’ve managed and worked with, in the past, is not blind favoritism. No, it’s because not only do they not need to learn the system, they can also help others learn the system. There are a number of people I’ve hired and rehired for that same reason. It really does make a major difference.

There’s probably a lot more I could have added, but I think these were the ones that spoke to me the most. I suspect they spoke to me the most because they validated a lot of my own thinking. Of the 5, the emphasis on organizational design and philosophy is the one that I believe is the most important. If you bring a philosophy and mindset to an organization instead of a preconceived notion about how to well, organize the organization, you’ll be better off. Org charts, if anything holds us back. Once you eliminate the concept of management through org chart, you can then start to apply #4. And if you can combine #1, #4 and #5, you’re usually going to be doing something amazing.

There’s a follow up to the book called ‘Pep Guardiola: The Evolution‘, as you might have suspected, it’s next up on my reading list.

How I Did With My 2017 Predictions

Snapchat Stock

We’re in the home stretch of 2017. I don’t foresee anything dramatic happening between now and the 31st that would impact the assessment of my 2017 predictions. I’m using the same rules as I always do. Each prediction will be evaluated critically. An accurate prediction will garner 1 point. A miss, earns a fat 0. I try to avoid the middle, but if a situation should arise where a prediction could be considered accurate by some, it will generate 1/2 a point.

For a recap of my 2016 predictions, click here. The headline for 2016 was 8.5/15 or 56.7%. This was even worse than, my 2015 predictions where I scored a 6.5/10. I’ve been trending downward since the high of my 2012 predictions where 90% were right. The 2014 predictions had an 80% success rate, but that was better than my 2013 predictions, which scored 60%.

So, let’s get on with it! The original prediction from 2017 is listed first and in bold font. The analysis follows.

  1. “Voice” will be the new battleground and by the end of the year, we will see Amazon, via Alexa as the clear cut #1, in the category. As part of this, Apple will release a Siri home product, but it will not succeed in besting Amazon or Google. Ding, ding, ding! In June, Apple announced the HomePod. Originally scheduled to launch in 2017, it’s now been delayed til 2018. Apple has a long way to go to catch up with Amazon.
  2. The prevailing theory is that the iPhone 8 will be a revolutionary step forward for phones in the way the original iPhone was. It won’t be, as measured through new hardware and software features. Despite that, the iPhone 8 will outpace iPhone 7 sales, globally. This is the classic case of earning 1/2 a point. The iPhone 8 was not a revolutionary step forward, but it has not outpaced iPhone 7 sales. However, this comes with the caveat that I, nor did anyone else see the iPhone X coming.
  3. In a similar way to how vinyl is propping up music sales, we will see a renaissance in real books. Yes, books, the kind with actual paper, will see growth. Since this is supposed to be the “clear cut” section, I believe as a %, books will outpace the sales growth of digital/ebooks. This definitely happened. Per CNN, “The same trend is on display in the U.S., where e-book sales declined 18.7% over the first nine months of 2016, according to the Association of American Publishers. Paperback sales were up 7.5% over the same period, and hardback sales increased 4.1%.”
  4. The term “predictive analytics” will displace “big data” as the buzzword du jour for marketers. This will happen as companies realize they already have lots of data, but they need to start using it in a way that isn’t about looking back. We will measure this with Google Trends. This did not happen, was not even close. Epic fail. I actually do think this is happening at organizations, but it hasn’t become mainstream enough for Google Trends to pick up on it.
  5. The Verizon-Yahoo merger will continue as planned. It will be the 1st of 3 large such mergers that will be announced or close in 2017. Consolidation is the only path forward, when 99% of the digital ad growth is split between Facebook and Google. This happened. Verizon and Yahoo! became Oath. What were the other 2? Well the AT&T – Time Warner merger was announced, but hasn’t closed. The other? Well, that’s the hotly debated Sinclair – Tribune merger.
  6. We will see a significant decrease in social media sharing, but not necessarily usage. There will be more consuming of “content” than there will be in sharing that content. This drop in sharing will be fueled by 3 reasons. First, with the continued rise of “gotcha journalism” and social justice warriors, people will think before they tweet, so to speak. The fear of retribution for posting something, initially thought of as innocuous, will decrease the willingness to share. Second, the rise in the combination of “paywall” type approaches to content with “fake news” will make people less inclined to want to share. Third and last, as Facebook and others become more and more of media/content creators, the walled garden approach to building networks will stunt cross platform and network sharing. 20%!!!! That’s how much sharing is down on Facebook. Dang! Yeah, I nailed this one.
  7. Facebook will see the wrath of the new administration. In a similar way to how Microsoft was seen as monopolistic and anti-competitive, Facebook will be targeted for the same reason, in addition to being targeted for their perceived control over how what media is consumed. The attempts by Facebook to curb “fake news” will backfire. Fiscally it was a good year for Facebook. But, reputation-wise, it was not a good year. My prediction accurately forecasted that Facebook would be targeted by the administration and the attempts to fix fake news, did not work.
  8. In 2016 we saw a handful “startups” get acquired by the legacy companies they compete against. For example, Dollar Shave Club’s purchase to Unilever and Jet.com’s purchase to Walmart. In 2017 we are not only going to see more of this, but we’re going to see it happen in unique and unexpected ways. For example Whole Foods acquiring Instacart or Target purchasing Refinery29. So, yeah, this happened A LOT this year. Take your pick. We have Amazon buying Whole Foods. Then we have Ikea buying TaskRabbit. I still expect Instacart to be purchased by a retailer at some point.
  9. Twitter will sell to an unlikely buyer. For example, Bezos (not Amazon) will buy it and then bolt it on to WaPo. Another unlikely buyer would be someone like Microsoft, who would then integrate it into things like LinkedIn and Yammer! An example of a likely buyer would be Google. Fail. Total swing and miss.
  10. I’m bringing forward a prediction from 2016. I think I was spot on, but a year early. Snapchat will IPO, but the IPO will flop. Did I say flop? I should have said crashed and burned. The IPO started at $17 and then rose to $24. It sits below $15 now and the future does not look bright at all.

So, how did I do? 7.5 out of 10. I missed on Twitter selling, predictive analytics over taking big data and the while the iPhone 8 was in fact not revolutionary, it did not outpace iPhone 7 sales. If we go back to 2012, my 5 year total to 71% (42.5/60). This was a good rebound year. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be working on my 2018 predictions. There’s going to be a lot chew on for next year.